Tuesday, 30 September 2014

Sale & Canterbury Today

Sale posts a Slow 6 and there has been showery weather around this morning so I doubt it gets any better,maybe a tad worse-monitor.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and sunny so expect fast ground there.
A substandard Spring Wednesday today and tough races to be confident about. I could have maybe been interested in One Direction at Canterbury (R6) but the early morning 3.20 is now 2.50 tops which seems about right.Possible speed battle upfront in this race so I need value to bet here.
Expect to be playing almost exclusively on the "lay' side of the exchange today.
If anything does come up I'll post it on Twitter.

September Round Up & YTD Figures

A very good set of figures this month despite a few health issues slowing me down a bit over the last few weeks. Here are the results:

Australia

Bets advised in the blog - bets advised in 9 races - 1 winner (good overlay)

Stakes                    8.40
Profit                      0.70 units

Bets advised via Twitter - bets advised in 34 races - 7 winners

Stakes                   35.55
Profit                     10.99 units

Overall Australia for the month PROFIT 11.69 units


UK & Int.

Bets advised in the blog - bets in 2 races- 1 winner

Stakes                      1.30
Profit                        5.35 units

Bets advised by Twitter - bets advised in 12 races - 5 winners

Stakes                      18.95
Profit                        11.96 units

Overall UK & Int. for the month  PROFIT 17.31

Overall total for the month  PROFIT  29.00 units

The overall YTD figures at the end of September are:

Stakes                       416.85
Profit                           80.89 units
POT                             19.41%

Away from the bets which obviously did very well this month I had my best month of the year playing on the "lay" side of the exchange so a month I'd like to be able to regularly repeat. It's a shame that the numbers fell a bit short for what was to be the first month of the private service as it would have been off to a bonanza start.
October was a shocker last year so hopefully this year I can get through it and have a positive result.
The Spring Carnival in Australia is in full swing now and it's "Arc" weekend in Paris so huge Saturday and Sunday ahead.

Saturday, 27 September 2014

Caulfield (G1 Sir Rupert Clarke) & Warwick Farm Today

Caulfield is a Good 3 and it's been watered in the last 24 hours contrary to what was made public earlier. Probably starts a genuine Good 3.
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast ground.
Caulfield has a terrific card highlighted by the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke over 1400m. It's great racing but apart from the Caulfield Guineas Prelude ( R6) it's an almost impossible card. Sportsbet put up markets at around 102% for an hour this morning and I still couln't find anything that I wanted to back. A lot of these markets will open up a fair bit during the afternoon and some value possibilities may emerge but realistically it looks a very tough day.
With so much racing this weekend I still haven't quite finished looking at the Warwick Farm meeting so if there is anything there it'll be sent via Twitter.
Anyone following on Twitter this month would be having a very good month although I accept it's not the ideal medium for getting info out and some of the tweets are easy to miss if your busy.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing

Friday, 26 September 2014

Sandown & Rosehill Today

Sandown is posted a Dead 4. It's dry there but William Hernan reported there was a good deal of give in the surface this morning so it may upgrade but isn't certain to do so.
Rosehill is a Good 3 and it's dry.
With the AFL Grand Final on today the Sandown card is midweek prize money bar race 6. Despite that it's a terrific card and there are sure to be opportunities as markets open up.
Rosehill is less appealing betting wise although there may be a couple of interest later on.
No early bets at this stage though.
Bets /Updates sent via Twitter

Moonee Valley (G1 Moir plus 4 other Group races) Tonight

Very good racing at Moonee Valley tonight with 5 group races including the G1 Moir stakes.
The track is posted a Dead 4 but with a strong chance of an upgrade.
No early bets tonight but a few possibilities if markets open up a little.
It's a massive weekend and I'm very pushed for time-family dramas over the last two days are the last thing I need at such busy time.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter

Tuesday, 23 September 2014

Bendigo & Canterbury Today

Bendigo is a Dead 4 and there are showers around there now and more due. You'll have to monitor conditions there as Sam Hyland reported the surface as worn and patchy this morning.
Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's dry so fast conditions there.

Canterbury

Race 6
Pythagorean draws awkwardly but the ones I have going forward here are in wide gates so hopefully he can follow them across and find an OK position. On his UK form he's got lengths on these although there are a couple of negatives to bear in mind. On a positive note his Aussie debut was good on wet ground (fast ground suits better) and he looked a live hope at the 300m before lack of condition told late. He's run really well in high class UK handicaps at big meetings and a NMW midweeker should be a walk in the park. The negatives are the awkward draw as already mentioned, the fact he was something of a "bookies horse " (perennialy unlucky) and he never went beyond 1400m in the UK (bred to get this trip and further). The other Waller import Campanology also has very solid UK and Irish form for a race like this and I be inclined to follow any market support for him here too. No sign of any money for him at this stage.

Advised Bet: Pythagorean 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-take the 5.50 with Tatts for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.

Bendigo

Race 6
The two coming from maiden grade Fluorescent and The Golden Pig both have more to offer which is not the case with the rest of this field. I've already advised The Golden Pig via Twitter at 13.0 which is overs although he's not entirely certain to get 2400m. I'm happy at this stage with that bet and with the chance that conditions may be wet by now will rest there are this stage.The 13.0 is still there so I'll list this as a bet in the blog.

Advised Bet: The Golden Pig 0.55 units at 10.0 or better-take the 13.0 with Bet 365 with the SP and Tote guarantees.

Races 7 and 8 are interesting but track conditions are crucial to anything I want to do there so I'll advise via Twitter

As usual Bets/Updates sent via Twitter during racing

Sunday, 21 September 2014

Last Weeks Round Up & YTD Figures

A very quiet week with limited opportunities and some very tricky racing. Only 6 bets advised all week and all sent via Twitter. Here are the figures:

Australia

Bets advised in the Blog - None

Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 4 races - 1 winner
Stakes               4.30
Profit                 1.55 units


UK & Int.

Bets advised in the blog- None

Bets advised via Twitter - bets in 2 races- 1 winner
Stakes                3.20
Profit                  3.42 units

Overall for the week Profit 4.97 units

Year To Date Figures:

Stakes               406.50
Profit                   73.58 units
POT                     18.10%

Midweek is very quiet this week with no Metro meeting in Victoria on Wednesday. Night racing returns to the Valley on Friday and the premier Melbourne meeting is on Sunday this week. In the UK (it still exists but it's wobbling!) the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting starts on Thursday. So early part of the week is pretty dull and then a frantic weekend in prospect.