Oaks,Guineas & QTC Cup at Eagle Farm plus Sandown & Rosehill

Good at Eagle Farm but with a fair chance of some rain during the day so monitor conditions there.
Sandown posts a Dead 5 and it should be dry there so hopefully it will upgrade.Rosehill posts a Good 3 and showers in Sydney looks most likely to affect the coastal fringe so Rosehill should miss them.

Blackbookers engaged today are:-

Eagle Farm         R3   Akzar
                            R7  Khutulun

Morphetville       R3 Madog
                            R4 Aeratus

Rosehill               R5 Longshoreman

Sandown             R5 Griante
                            R6 Refulgent
                            R7 St Jean


Eagle Farm

Race 3
This is sure to be tactical and in those circumstances I don't want to be rushing into 2.60 for Akzar. I think he's the most likely winner but for me to be involved today I'd ideally like to see some rain and at least 3.0

Race 7
Arabian Gold is around 2.60 this morning and she's fully entitled to be favourite here. Thie trip worries me a bit with her though so I want to find so value away from her. Sancerre has had a couple of warm up's for this since coming over from NZ. She looks pretty useful and she's out of that quality NZ mare Vouvray by O'Reilly so she bred to do the job.I've backed her at 13.0 this morning.Khutulun has a bit to find on figures but she's definitely better than her form reads.She drawn badly and will have to go forward early to find a position.Melham does the steering and he's come back in fine form so  I backing her too now she out to double figure odds.

Advised Bets: Sancerre 0.55 at 9.0 (shortening) or better,Khutulun 0.45 at 11.0 or better (drifting)


Rosehill

Race 3
I thought Scatcat was the overs here at 8.50 against my rating of 6.0.Gets a good run behind the speed and her efforts in Melbourne have been OK for a race like this.Blackboard Special is promising but draws out and will be giving a start away

Advised Bet: Scatcat 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.50 now

Race 5
Rugged Cross was atrocious last time.He's much better than that effort surely although I'm not sure he's one to have too much confidence in. He is clearly the one to beat if he returns to the form he's shown in Melbourne Longshoreman won really well last time and i still think there is a bit more to come from him. Adorabeel is promising but this is a big class jump
May play here but not committed yet.

Sandown

Race 7
Conceed there are not many you can fancy here and St Jean the obvious but I couldn't back him at 2.50 with the wide barrier to overcome. He's far too short I think. I wish Sacred Flyer had shown a bit more last time but I'm considering backing him.Not committed yet though.

Race 8
Onpicalo is clearly the one to beat from gate 1 but 2.0 is rock bottom.Stablemate Mighty Like must be a live chance after winning three on the trot although he's 5 weeks between runs so may need it today. The big overs is Upbeat at 18.0. I tweeted this through last night expecting him to shorten but the 18.0 is still there.My figures have him at 8.0

Advised Bet: Upbeat 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-take the 18.0 with Bet365 if you can get on

Two blackbookers running at Morphetville but passing on both.Aeratus is a risk at 1600m and Madog goes from a maiden to -72 grade.Both can win but I'm not playing

Mornington & Canterbury Today

Mornington is a Slow 6 and there is a chance of more showers there.Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's dry in Sydney.
Excellent article by Daniel O'Sullivan of Smartform regarding the watering policy of .A must read if you are a serious punter on racing in Victoria.I retweeted his post this morning.

Early handicaps at Mornington make little appeal betting wise but things get interesting from race 7 onwards.
Canterbury is generally difficult although I'm keen on one race there.

Canterbury

Race 4
White Devon did a stack of work last time and still battled on to run second.The winner there may be fair type so with White Devon likely to have a much easier time of things in the run today I'm happy to be with her.

Advised Bet: White Devon 1.40 units at 3.70 or better-4.40 on offer now


Mornington

Possibilities in races 7, 8 and 9 and will tweet if I'm playing there

Bets/Lays/Updates via twitter during the afternoon

Weekly Round Up

A very tough week on a personal level away from the racing with serious family issues making it very hard to stay focused.Car broken into, vandalized and immobilized which only went to infuriate and complicated an already bad week.
I did no business last week on UK racing as my schedules were compromised by other factors but I watched all the replays so I'm still on top of things.
Poor week on the Australian racing and it adds to what is a miserable month so far. Here are the figures for last week:-

UK and International
NO bets advised this week

Australia

Bets advised in the blog-2 bets 0 winners
Stakes     2.70
LOSS      2.70

Bets advised via Twitter 8 races-0 winners

Stakes     8.65
LOSS      8.65

Total LOSS for the week  11.35 units

Need things to pick up all round at the moment

10,000 at Doomben plus Flemington & Randwick

Doomben is a Good 3 and dry.Flemington is a Dead 4 but dry so may upgrade.Randwick posted a Slow 6 this am but is now a Dead 5.May upgrade again. Why it was a Slow 6 this am is quite mystifying.It's been a dry week in Sydney and Wednesday's meeting on the adjacent Kenso track was run on a Good 3. As in all things Racing New South Wales expect a less than satisfactory explanation.
A very tough week so far with events unconnected with racing. Sometimes is doesn't matter how much you tell the outside world to piss off and leave you alone to get on with your work it just will not. It's the same for everyone I know but once I get irate and frazzled my performance levels punting wise are definitely affected.

Just the two early ones today

Randwick

Race 6
I'm assuming there will be still some juice in the ground by now as Secessio isn't at all disadvantaged by wet conditions. Up to 2400m here suits him ideally.Sure La Amisted is a promising stayer but she's 16 points wrong with Secessio on official figures and that's after a 6 point hike for her last win.

Advised bet : Secessio 1.05 units at 5.0 or better-take the 7.0 on offer now for half the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance


Doomben

Race 5
Platinum Rocker has some top line WA form to her credit and she ran well in the wet when resuming.She gets a good run here and should be shorter according to my figures.Srikandi has an awkward draw to deal with but she's very promising.Plucky Belle draws out in the cheap seats also.Chintz has good NZ form but may just need this

Advised Bet: Platinum Belle 1.65 units at 4.20 or better-take the 5.0 on offer now for half the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.

Any further Bets/Lays and Updates sent via Twitter

Sandown & Kensington Today

Sandown Is a Dead 4 and the Kenso track is a Good 3.Little or no rain around at either venue so Sandown may upgrade later.

I tweeted through a couple of early bets (odds are still there) and they are as follows:-

Sandown R9
Marksmanship gets out to a trip he wants here.He will be going forward and has the 2kg claim as well.His European efforts suggest this is a very winnable race for him.I've got a 3.0 chance here and Bet 365 are betting 4.20.I know the problems of getting on that a lot of us have but it's still there if you are able to get it.

Advised Bet: Marksmanship 1.65 units at 3.20 or better


Sandown R10
Rainbow Gold has the wide gate to overcome so Noonan will probably have to press on here.The 64 race he ran second in is probably the strongest race in that grade run in Victoria in recent weeks. I've got him at 6.25 here absolute max and there is plenty of 9.0 on offer-11.0 with Bet 365

Advised Bet: Rainbow Gold 0.80 units at 6.50 or better

Both these two will be listed as bets advised in the blog. as nothing has changed since I sent the Tweets

There are possibilities in Sydney and in earlier races at Sandown and any more today will be sent via twitter

Weekly Round Up

In the red again last week as far as the blog is concerned although there wasn't a lot of action and the damage wasn't very big.Here are the figures:-

Australia

Bets in the blog  1 bet-no winners
   
Stakes        1.05 units
LOSS         1.05 units

Bets sent via Twitter  2 races -no winners

Stakes         2.70 units
LOSS          2.70 units

Australian total  3.75units LOSS


UK and International

Bets in the blog   3 races-no winners

Stakes         3.90 units
LOSS          3.90 units

Bets sent via Twitter  1 race - 1 winner

Stakes          1.35 units
PROFIT       4.53 units

UK & Int. total  0.78 units PROFIT

Overall total for the week  2.97 units LOSS

Missed out on a couple of nicely priced winners last week-marginal calls and went the wrong way so a bit frustrating overall.

I'm at a tipping point with this blog at the moment.I know that there are  quite a few regular followers  but by now I would have hoped to have more. The options are to can it or to make a big push and put more time into it and hope the numbers pick up.I'll opt for the latter option and make a big effort over the next two months and review after that. If your a follower and you want it to continue than tell a few of your mates about it.I need 100 regular followers really to justify the effort involved in putting it out.

Lockinge at Newbury plus Newmarket & Thirsk

G1 Lockinge stakes at Newbury and it really does look Olympic Glory's race to lose.He's well clear of these on the book and if he returns in top form then he should be winning. Not a race to be betting in for me.
All three tracks are basically Good and Newmarket and Newbury may be a little faster than that as the day wears on.There are possible showers at Newmarket later so monitor the weather there.
Again only one bet today at the moment

Newmarket

Race 4
Valuable 3-y-o sprint handicap.Stomp looks a horse with a future and 3.75 may look a skinny price to be taking in a early season race like this but I'm happy to play at those odds as my figures have him at 3.0

Advised Bet: Stomp 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-I took 4.0 earlier but 3.75 is value.

I'm considering backing Mount Athos in the second race at Newbury but I'm not committed yet.There are another couple of possibilities and if there is anything else I'll send it via twitter