Moonee Valley tonight and track is posted as a Dead 4.There is a bit of rain around in Melbourne today and at this stage 5 hours out from the start of the meeting I expect it will remain a dead track tonight.
There are no advised bets tonight -I was interested in 2 or 3 horses but they have come up too short in early markets so I've decided to pass.
Back tomorrow with a look at Saturday's racing
Thursday, 31 January 2013
January Round Up & Laying horses
January was the worst performing month for this blog since I started it in October last year.Bets were advised in 19 races and there were 4 winners and 7 placings (5 seconds) which scraped a miserly profit on the month of 0.25 units.Nothing flash I'll concede but it is some profit to add to the previous months successes.The early months of October and November were very good but I was just advising selections then and not giving staking and odds advice.Since I started giving specific staking and odds in December the cumulative totals are as follows :-
Stakes 56.55 Returns 63.58 Profit 7.03 Profit on turnover 12.43%
As we move into February we'll quickly see the quality of the racing improve and we'll be dealing with decent racing and better horses which does give us plenty took look forward to.December and January are tough months to cope with with lots of racing and most of it of very poor quality and the added distractions of Christmas and New Year.
I have a lot more "lay"bets on the exchange during the off months and find that the best way to keep things ticking over every day.Laying horses can be difficult for a lot of punters especially the ones who don't like betting at short odds as effectively your betting "odds on" the majority of times when you lay one (unless it's odds on itself of course).Four or five winners on one afternoon can wipe out all your gains from the previous few days so it can be a very frustrating exercise if you go through a poor run as inevitably you will at some point.The reality is though that when you have a midweek card at Moe to deal with it's almost impossible sometimes to find anything you want to back but not at all hard to find plenty that you wouldn't back with someone else's money.
My approach is that I lay to lose a set amount irrespective of whether I'm laying an even money shot or a 10/1 shot.I lose the same amount when any of them win but the shorter they are the more I make when they get beaten.Around the country tracks I'm very wary when the market seems to be emphatic about something and will often decide to scratch the "lay" and back it back and accept a small loss.This cottoning on to when there is more going on than you actually know about just comes with experience but I'm never slow to back off when things aren't looking quite right.
For anyone who is thinking about starting to try "lay" betting my advice would be to firstly understand that you have to accept that laying winners is as much a part of it as is laying losers-that some of them win is inevitable.Start for modest amounts that aren't going to knock you out if three or four of them win in a row (it happens).Build up slowly as you get better at it.If you get into the market early in race a very good rule of thumb is to think seriously about scratching and accepting a modest loss if the market is telling you you've got it wrong.For example if you lay a second favourite at 4.00 and the favourite starts to blow and your lay shortens to 3.50 get out,clear your liability and accept a modest loss.It's a bit different if your playing late just before off time but it's also harder over the long term to have an edge if you get into the market late.If you find that 75% of the ones you lay blow in the market albeit only a half point or so your well on your way to getting good at it-just be careful with the ones that firm up and unless your holding a strong opinion don't be slow to scratch and take a small loss.
Stakes 56.55 Returns 63.58 Profit 7.03 Profit on turnover 12.43%
As we move into February we'll quickly see the quality of the racing improve and we'll be dealing with decent racing and better horses which does give us plenty took look forward to.December and January are tough months to cope with with lots of racing and most of it of very poor quality and the added distractions of Christmas and New Year.
I have a lot more "lay"bets on the exchange during the off months and find that the best way to keep things ticking over every day.Laying horses can be difficult for a lot of punters especially the ones who don't like betting at short odds as effectively your betting "odds on" the majority of times when you lay one (unless it's odds on itself of course).Four or five winners on one afternoon can wipe out all your gains from the previous few days so it can be a very frustrating exercise if you go through a poor run as inevitably you will at some point.The reality is though that when you have a midweek card at Moe to deal with it's almost impossible sometimes to find anything you want to back but not at all hard to find plenty that you wouldn't back with someone else's money.
My approach is that I lay to lose a set amount irrespective of whether I'm laying an even money shot or a 10/1 shot.I lose the same amount when any of them win but the shorter they are the more I make when they get beaten.Around the country tracks I'm very wary when the market seems to be emphatic about something and will often decide to scratch the "lay" and back it back and accept a small loss.This cottoning on to when there is more going on than you actually know about just comes with experience but I'm never slow to back off when things aren't looking quite right.
For anyone who is thinking about starting to try "lay" betting my advice would be to firstly understand that you have to accept that laying winners is as much a part of it as is laying losers-that some of them win is inevitable.Start for modest amounts that aren't going to knock you out if three or four of them win in a row (it happens).Build up slowly as you get better at it.If you get into the market early in race a very good rule of thumb is to think seriously about scratching and accepting a modest loss if the market is telling you you've got it wrong.For example if you lay a second favourite at 4.00 and the favourite starts to blow and your lay shortens to 3.50 get out,clear your liability and accept a modest loss.It's a bit different if your playing late just before off time but it's also harder over the long term to have an edge if you get into the market late.If you find that 75% of the ones you lay blow in the market albeit only a half point or so your well on your way to getting good at it-just be careful with the ones that firm up and unless your holding a strong opinion don't be slow to scratch and take a small loss.
Tuesday, 29 January 2013
Ballarat & Gosford Today
As I mentioned last week some of the Wednesday fixtures in the Summer months have really fallen away quality wise and that is pretty much the case today.
Ballarat Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3.When Sam Hyland walked the track this morning he noted that the inside was a little chopped out and that the track walked best a few horse widths away from the fence.The rail is out a full 13m in the straight here today!He also noted that the ground down the outside of the track seemed firmer.The fence may be well and truly off here today so caution if you are playing early.
It's a typical Ballarat midweek programme.Far from easy overall but I'm happy to play in the last race
Race 8 Two against the field here.Red Rain and Champagne Shisha both come off very decent efforts in Saturday grade at Flemington last time so their chances here are obvious but both are pretty much exposed types and I doubt there is that much improvement to come from either.Tuscan Breeze resumes after a stint in Darwin where he seems to have improved a bit.He's not hopeless if he's fit enough.Bet You She Rocks was very dominant winning her maiden at Sale and I suspect she's going to rate much higher than the 62 she races off here today.A little bit of 5.0 was quickly snapped up but at 4.40 she is still of interest-I have her at 3.75.Vee Force looked a horse with a real future when powering home at Ararat last month.He was backed heavily here a couple of weeks after that but was withdrawn at the start.Last time at Kyneton he was smashed in the betting again but looked all at sea from the moment the gates opened that day and was beaten a long way from home.That was too bad to be true and I'm forgiving him one poor effort.He's a big long strider so maybe Kyneton was too tight or maybe he just had an off day.He's got a Saturday second at Flemington to his credit from last prep and is 5.00 on my figures but can be backed at 9.50 here.
Gosford Heavy 8 here after the big wet earlier in the week.I won't be backing anything here today with all the recent form being on fast ground I'm very wary.The only observation I did have here today was regarding race 4 where Spurtonic has been installed fav around 3.30.I think that's big unders-I have him at 6.00-whether that helps you I don't know.
Advised Bets
Ballarat Race 8 Bet You She Rocks 1.30 units to win @4.00 or better (take the 4.40 now)
Vee Force 1 unit to win @ 5.50 or better (take the 9.50 Bet 365 if you can
otherwise plenty of 8.0 available)
Ballarat Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3.When Sam Hyland walked the track this morning he noted that the inside was a little chopped out and that the track walked best a few horse widths away from the fence.The rail is out a full 13m in the straight here today!He also noted that the ground down the outside of the track seemed firmer.The fence may be well and truly off here today so caution if you are playing early.
It's a typical Ballarat midweek programme.Far from easy overall but I'm happy to play in the last race
Race 8 Two against the field here.Red Rain and Champagne Shisha both come off very decent efforts in Saturday grade at Flemington last time so their chances here are obvious but both are pretty much exposed types and I doubt there is that much improvement to come from either.Tuscan Breeze resumes after a stint in Darwin where he seems to have improved a bit.He's not hopeless if he's fit enough.Bet You She Rocks was very dominant winning her maiden at Sale and I suspect she's going to rate much higher than the 62 she races off here today.A little bit of 5.0 was quickly snapped up but at 4.40 she is still of interest-I have her at 3.75.Vee Force looked a horse with a real future when powering home at Ararat last month.He was backed heavily here a couple of weeks after that but was withdrawn at the start.Last time at Kyneton he was smashed in the betting again but looked all at sea from the moment the gates opened that day and was beaten a long way from home.That was too bad to be true and I'm forgiving him one poor effort.He's a big long strider so maybe Kyneton was too tight or maybe he just had an off day.He's got a Saturday second at Flemington to his credit from last prep and is 5.00 on my figures but can be backed at 9.50 here.
Gosford Heavy 8 here after the big wet earlier in the week.I won't be backing anything here today with all the recent form being on fast ground I'm very wary.The only observation I did have here today was regarding race 4 where Spurtonic has been installed fav around 3.30.I think that's big unders-I have him at 6.00-whether that helps you I don't know.
Advised Bets
Ballarat Race 8 Bet You She Rocks 1.30 units to win @4.00 or better (take the 4.40 now)
Vee Force 1 unit to win @ 5.50 or better (take the 9.50 Bet 365 if you can
otherwise plenty of 8.0 available)
Monday, 28 January 2013
Integrity Services
Apologies for no blog yesterday to cover the MRC meeting at Mornington but I had no Telsta service (broadband,landline and mobile all out) yesterday.Annoying but bearable considering what many others in Queensland are going through right now.
Racing Victoria's Integrity Services is in the news with their "compliance unit" dropping in on stables mid-morning and stumbling across/finding all kinds of naughtyness going on involving syringes,tubes etc.
As a punter I'm glad to see something happening but can't help feeling that without the shake up from outside (ABC Four Corners and The Age) things generally would have carried on much as before.
Victoria's Integrity Services Commissioner,Sal Perna last week emphasized that after conducting a thorough review he didn't believe that all in all things were too bad.He later went on to call on Victoria Police to initiate a dedicated Racing Squad to deal with issues of corruption in Victorian Racing.If you want the police to set up a special task force Sal, I suspect, deep down you know things are far from good and plenty of nonsense is happening on a regular basis.
I've been following Victorian racing virtually daily for quite a few years now.Compared to what used to happen around the gaff tracks in the UK when I was punting there in the 80's things are much better here now than they were there then.Stewards over there at that time were unpaid dignataries who turned up to officiate out of a sense of duty and to enjoy a good well lubricated lunch at the same time.Many were owners with horses in training with the same trainers they were officiating over.Hardly an enviroment condusive to fair play and impartiality.
Skullduggery isn't quite so blatant now it's subtler.Those of us following things on a daily basis and expecting to trade profitably out of it soon develop a nose for when things aren't quite kosher.There are trainers and jockeys viewed with suspicion and caution not out of malice but out of hard earned experience.Money speaks all languages and lack of it connected to horses ridden by or trained by those in question generally tells you plenty and more besides.
The reality is that racing in any jurisdiction is as straight as the overseeing authority demands that it be.In Hong Kong I would say it is as straight as it is possible for it humanly to be.Integrity overides all other considerations there.In the competitive world that most of us inhabit we get better by striving and emulating those who we accept are doing things excellently.If you want people to spend their leisure dollar punting on horse racing you need to make integrity paramount.If your running for cover and flapping like a headless chook when the likes of Four Corners and The Age get stuck into you it's because they are touching a raw nerve and you know it.Surely it is time to aspire to making the integrity of Australian racing on a par with that of Hong Kong.As the premier racing state and with all the recent hullabaloo it's time for Victoria to take the lead here.
A good place to start would be by allocating some serious resources into restructuring Integrity Services probably at the expense of prize money.This would send a loud and clear message that punters are being put first and that their money (they are the largest and most consistent contributors to the coffers of racing) is being used to structure an integrity division that they can be confident is operating at world's best practise levels.Whether the current chief steward Terry Bailey is the man to take things forward is debatable.I believe Bailey compromised his authority in his handling of the Danny Nikolic case by allowing the issue to become personal.The animus between the two men was well known for some time in racing circles and the blame for that has to lie with Bailey not Nikolic.A chief steward has to be seen to be above petty dislikes etc. and by allowing things to fester as he did Bailey undermined the integity of his office.Whatever one thinks of NSW chief steward Ray Murrihy
(he made an arse of himself about Betfair both here and overseas) his handling of Jockeys indiscretions has been thorough and fair.Jockeys and Trainers may not like him but his judgements are seen to be fair and impartial and as such he has the respect that his office demands.
The bloke who's Chief Steward in Queensland doesn't really rate a mention.
Racing Victoria's Integrity Services is in the news with their "compliance unit" dropping in on stables mid-morning and stumbling across/finding all kinds of naughtyness going on involving syringes,tubes etc.
As a punter I'm glad to see something happening but can't help feeling that without the shake up from outside (ABC Four Corners and The Age) things generally would have carried on much as before.
Victoria's Integrity Services Commissioner,Sal Perna last week emphasized that after conducting a thorough review he didn't believe that all in all things were too bad.He later went on to call on Victoria Police to initiate a dedicated Racing Squad to deal with issues of corruption in Victorian Racing.If you want the police to set up a special task force Sal, I suspect, deep down you know things are far from good and plenty of nonsense is happening on a regular basis.
I've been following Victorian racing virtually daily for quite a few years now.Compared to what used to happen around the gaff tracks in the UK when I was punting there in the 80's things are much better here now than they were there then.Stewards over there at that time were unpaid dignataries who turned up to officiate out of a sense of duty and to enjoy a good well lubricated lunch at the same time.Many were owners with horses in training with the same trainers they were officiating over.Hardly an enviroment condusive to fair play and impartiality.
Skullduggery isn't quite so blatant now it's subtler.Those of us following things on a daily basis and expecting to trade profitably out of it soon develop a nose for when things aren't quite kosher.There are trainers and jockeys viewed with suspicion and caution not out of malice but out of hard earned experience.Money speaks all languages and lack of it connected to horses ridden by or trained by those in question generally tells you plenty and more besides.
The reality is that racing in any jurisdiction is as straight as the overseeing authority demands that it be.In Hong Kong I would say it is as straight as it is possible for it humanly to be.Integrity overides all other considerations there.In the competitive world that most of us inhabit we get better by striving and emulating those who we accept are doing things excellently.If you want people to spend their leisure dollar punting on horse racing you need to make integrity paramount.If your running for cover and flapping like a headless chook when the likes of Four Corners and The Age get stuck into you it's because they are touching a raw nerve and you know it.Surely it is time to aspire to making the integrity of Australian racing on a par with that of Hong Kong.As the premier racing state and with all the recent hullabaloo it's time for Victoria to take the lead here.
A good place to start would be by allocating some serious resources into restructuring Integrity Services probably at the expense of prize money.This would send a loud and clear message that punters are being put first and that their money (they are the largest and most consistent contributors to the coffers of racing) is being used to structure an integrity division that they can be confident is operating at world's best practise levels.Whether the current chief steward Terry Bailey is the man to take things forward is debatable.I believe Bailey compromised his authority in his handling of the Danny Nikolic case by allowing the issue to become personal.The animus between the two men was well known for some time in racing circles and the blame for that has to lie with Bailey not Nikolic.A chief steward has to be seen to be above petty dislikes etc. and by allowing things to fester as he did Bailey undermined the integity of his office.Whatever one thinks of NSW chief steward Ray Murrihy
(he made an arse of himself about Betfair both here and overseas) his handling of Jockeys indiscretions has been thorough and fair.Jockeys and Trainers may not like him but his judgements are seen to be fair and impartial and as such he has the respect that his office demands.
The bloke who's Chief Steward in Queensland doesn't really rate a mention.
Friday, 25 January 2013
Australia Day Racing at Caulfield & Warwick Farm
A very nice winner at 11.0 last night gets the blog right back on track after a lean couple of weeks.
Australia Day programmes today at Caulfield and Warwick Farm.Caulfield is a Dead 4 but will almost certainly upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 but has thundery showers possible this afternoon so there is a chance that they may affect the track if they do arrive and are heavy and prolonged.
Caulfield
I cannot really find any early value here today so nothing I can put forward.
Warwick Farm
Race 5 Matignon is favourite here after being blocked for a run last time.She seemed to resent being settled early in that race and fought the rider for the first furlong or so.She's a mare who can still do better but she's been well found in the early markets here at 3.30.Kristy Lee makes more appeal after a very dominant win last time albeit in maiden grade.The drop back to 1200m there really seemed to suit her and she bounded away.Photon Willie who finished third that day has already franked the form with a win on Wednesday.A mark of 67 looks fair and she gets weight from everything else here.She is best priced 5.0 with bookies but is available at longer on Betfair and she should get out to around 5.50 there at some point.I have her rated 4.60.
Race 8 War Charm is favourite here at 4.80.He's a live hope and he ran like he was looking for 1400m last time but the current quote is too short .Far more appealing is the progessive Reunite who has twice obliged for the blog in recent weeks and who keeps being underestimated by the bookies.Once again he draws to get a gun run just behind the speed.The very capable (and fanciable) Kathy O'Hara keeps the ride and I cannot quite understand how he is listed at 11.0 (more generally 10.0) and was a tad bigger earlier.Rock solid 7.0 on my figures so keen to be involved.
Advised Bets
Warwick Farm Race 5 Kristy Lee 1.10 units to win @ 4.80 or better (shop on Betfair and look for 5.50 plus)
Race 8 Reunite 0.75 units to win @ 7.50 or better (11.0 is available
with Bet365 or 10.0 more generally-take the odds on
offer now)
Australia Day programmes today at Caulfield and Warwick Farm.Caulfield is a Dead 4 but will almost certainly upgrade to a Good 3.Warwick Farm is a Good 3 but has thundery showers possible this afternoon so there is a chance that they may affect the track if they do arrive and are heavy and prolonged.
Caulfield
I cannot really find any early value here today so nothing I can put forward.
Warwick Farm
Race 5 Matignon is favourite here after being blocked for a run last time.She seemed to resent being settled early in that race and fought the rider for the first furlong or so.She's a mare who can still do better but she's been well found in the early markets here at 3.30.Kristy Lee makes more appeal after a very dominant win last time albeit in maiden grade.The drop back to 1200m there really seemed to suit her and she bounded away.Photon Willie who finished third that day has already franked the form with a win on Wednesday.A mark of 67 looks fair and she gets weight from everything else here.She is best priced 5.0 with bookies but is available at longer on Betfair and she should get out to around 5.50 there at some point.I have her rated 4.60.
Race 8 War Charm is favourite here at 4.80.He's a live hope and he ran like he was looking for 1400m last time but the current quote is too short .Far more appealing is the progessive Reunite who has twice obliged for the blog in recent weeks and who keeps being underestimated by the bookies.Once again he draws to get a gun run just behind the speed.The very capable (and fanciable) Kathy O'Hara keeps the ride and I cannot quite understand how he is listed at 11.0 (more generally 10.0) and was a tad bigger earlier.Rock solid 7.0 on my figures so keen to be involved.
Advised Bets
Warwick Farm Race 5 Kristy Lee 1.10 units to win @ 4.80 or better (shop on Betfair and look for 5.50 plus)
Race 8 Reunite 0.75 units to win @ 7.50 or better (11.0 is available
with Bet365 or 10.0 more generally-take the odds on
offer now)
Thursday, 24 January 2013
Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight
Evening racing at both Moonee Valley and Canterbury tonight.Both tracks are now Good 3 and expect good fast summer conditions at both venues.
Reasonable cards for both meetings tonight but not a lot of value apparent at this stage.All of my activity this evening will be on the lay side of the exchange until the last race at the Valley where I shall be having a small play at odds.
Moonee Valley
Race 8 A few live hopes here but Highness does look decent overs at 11.0.He ran well here when second to Jamaican Warrior here 2 starts back and then followed up with a soft win at Morphetville last time.A lightly raced 6-y-o with the scope to improve further and ridden by the promising apprentice Jamie Kah he rates a 6.50 chance on my figures so I'm happy to risk a bit at the 11.0 on offer.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 8 Highness 0.75 units to win @ 7.00 or better (take the 11.0 on offer now with IAS and Sportsbet)
Reasonable cards for both meetings tonight but not a lot of value apparent at this stage.All of my activity this evening will be on the lay side of the exchange until the last race at the Valley where I shall be having a small play at odds.
Moonee Valley
Race 8 A few live hopes here but Highness does look decent overs at 11.0.He ran well here when second to Jamaican Warrior here 2 starts back and then followed up with a soft win at Morphetville last time.A lightly raced 6-y-o with the scope to improve further and ridden by the promising apprentice Jamie Kah he rates a 6.50 chance on my figures so I'm happy to risk a bit at the 11.0 on offer.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 8 Highness 0.75 units to win @ 7.00 or better (take the 11.0 on offer now with IAS and Sportsbet)
Tuesday, 22 January 2013
Ballarat & Kembla Today
Wednesday racing isn't what is was with the racing clubs moving to Friday evening fixtures.Commercially it makes sense for the clubs to race when their patrons are not tied up with work and business bit it does leave the early part of the week looking a bit shabby.
It's an ATC fixture at Kembla but it looks like a standard Kembla provincial meeting really with the added bonus for "participants" of plenty of extra prize money sloshing around.At some point over the next few weeks I'll be firing off a few blogs about the state of Australian Racing and the piss poor way it is administered but for now I'll stick to trying to find a winner or two.If your playing at Kembla today then good luck.I couldn't find anything to interest me there at all.The track is rated a Dead 4 and showers are forecast so don't automatically assume an upgrade is a given.
Typical provincial midweek meeting at Ballarat today.Dead 4 posted and a bit of drizzle forecast this morning.Radar looks all clear so I expect an upgrade to Good 3.
Race 4 Interesting maiden I thought.Rawiller gets the leg up on Angola and he's the man to get the best out of this horse.He's copped bit of flack of late for some of his rides (Richard Callender was particularly vocal on a couple of occasions) but there is no jockey riding better in Victoria and I rate him very highly.He's improved enormously over the last few months and I always see him as a positive for any horse, particularly so in races over 1600m plus.This horse needs to settle a little better and expect Rawiller to have him covered up nicely on the fence a little better than midfield.He's a tricky ride but if Rawiller can get him relaxed he could improve a fair bit on his last effort.
Vine was very good from the rear last time in a decent midweek race at Sandown.Nicholas Hall rides and here we have the opposite of Rawiller.This is a rider who whilst possessing ability loses many races with extreme waiting tactics.I'm wary of backing horses ridden by Hall and would need to see things happening a little differently in the way he approaches things for me to change my mind.Vine will get back and attempt to round them up late.He looks the horse with the most potential here but may need further now.No early markets here so no bet advised but a race I'm interested in pending the shape of the market.
Race 7 I think there is more to come from Sound Of The Ocean.Both his efforts this prep have been good albeit in -58 grade.The step up to -62 grade here will put off a lot of people but not me.Time may tell he was really up against it last time trying to give 5kg's to Onya Keithy who bolted up again at Camperdown on Saturday.He was wide throughout that day as well.The step up 1400m is very much a positive as is the nice gate (4)-he can race handy.He's a half brother to Hay List and whilst he's unlikely to rival his sibling in ability he's going along the right way.My figures have him at 4.50 here and 7.00 is available now which makes plenty of appeal to me.
Advised Bets
Ballarat Race 7 Sound Of The Ocean 1.10 units to win @ 4.80 or better (take the 7.00 on offer now)
It's an ATC fixture at Kembla but it looks like a standard Kembla provincial meeting really with the added bonus for "participants" of plenty of extra prize money sloshing around.At some point over the next few weeks I'll be firing off a few blogs about the state of Australian Racing and the piss poor way it is administered but for now I'll stick to trying to find a winner or two.If your playing at Kembla today then good luck.I couldn't find anything to interest me there at all.The track is rated a Dead 4 and showers are forecast so don't automatically assume an upgrade is a given.
Typical provincial midweek meeting at Ballarat today.Dead 4 posted and a bit of drizzle forecast this morning.Radar looks all clear so I expect an upgrade to Good 3.
Race 4 Interesting maiden I thought.Rawiller gets the leg up on Angola and he's the man to get the best out of this horse.He's copped bit of flack of late for some of his rides (Richard Callender was particularly vocal on a couple of occasions) but there is no jockey riding better in Victoria and I rate him very highly.He's improved enormously over the last few months and I always see him as a positive for any horse, particularly so in races over 1600m plus.This horse needs to settle a little better and expect Rawiller to have him covered up nicely on the fence a little better than midfield.He's a tricky ride but if Rawiller can get him relaxed he could improve a fair bit on his last effort.
Vine was very good from the rear last time in a decent midweek race at Sandown.Nicholas Hall rides and here we have the opposite of Rawiller.This is a rider who whilst possessing ability loses many races with extreme waiting tactics.I'm wary of backing horses ridden by Hall and would need to see things happening a little differently in the way he approaches things for me to change my mind.Vine will get back and attempt to round them up late.He looks the horse with the most potential here but may need further now.No early markets here so no bet advised but a race I'm interested in pending the shape of the market.
Race 7 I think there is more to come from Sound Of The Ocean.Both his efforts this prep have been good albeit in -58 grade.The step up to -62 grade here will put off a lot of people but not me.Time may tell he was really up against it last time trying to give 5kg's to Onya Keithy who bolted up again at Camperdown on Saturday.He was wide throughout that day as well.The step up 1400m is very much a positive as is the nice gate (4)-he can race handy.He's a half brother to Hay List and whilst he's unlikely to rival his sibling in ability he's going along the right way.My figures have him at 4.50 here and 7.00 is available now which makes plenty of appeal to me.
Advised Bets
Ballarat Race 7 Sound Of The Ocean 1.10 units to win @ 4.80 or better (take the 7.00 on offer now)
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