It's been dry overnight at Doncaster and it was dry yesterday so for there to be any deadness in the ground (Good to Soft in places on the Round Course) suggests they were a bit zealous with the watering. Dry weather so it should be Good or better by the time racing gets underway.
Much better today after yesterday's tepid start.
Race 2
Bragging demolished her rivals at York and she already rates as a group class filly and I doubt she has stopped improving yet. This is a stern test for her but I have her a rock solid 3.0 chance here. J Wonder and Token Of Love are feared most. I tweeted Bragging through a few hours ago and there was 4.20 offered in one place.The advised bet was 1.75 units at 3.20 or better.She's 3.50 now and probably starts a tad shorter. This will be logged as a bet advised via Twitter
Race 8
Bajan Bear has kept improving through the Summer with his only blot being on wet ground. He did well from a poor draw last time and he's worth an interest in an open race.
Advised Bet: Bajan Bear 0.65 units at 8.0 or better- monitor on Betfair currently 10.0 plus
There may be more later and further Bets/Updates sent via Twitter
Thursday, 11 September 2014
Wednesday, 10 September 2014
Doncaster St Leger Meeting - Day One
Good to Soft with Good places is posted for day one of the Leger meeting.Expect it generally to dry out to Good during the day and with a fair dry week ahead it should be fast racing ground as the week goes on.
Today's racing makes very little appeal bets wise and I doubt I'll be backing anything.A few look obvious on form but they are not without negatives and are generally a bit short.
Hopefully things will pick up as the week progresses but it's a bit of a lacklustre start to the meeting.
Any bets (unlikely) /updates sent via Twitter
Today's racing makes very little appeal bets wise and I doubt I'll be backing anything.A few look obvious on form but they are not without negatives and are generally a bit short.
Hopefully things will pick up as the week progresses but it's a bit of a lacklustre start to the meeting.
Any bets (unlikely) /updates sent via Twitter
Tuesday, 9 September 2014
Bendigo & Warwick Farm Today
Bendigo is a Dead 4 and it's dry and an upgrade may be a possibility.
Warwick Farm had plenty of rain overnight and is a Heavy 8.The rain seems to have cleared now so it's just a question of how accurate that 8 rating is. Doubt it will deteriorate further as no more rain seems likely.
Two early bets today have both already been sent via Twitter but the prices are still there .
Bendigo
Race 5
Churchill Express and Melting Moments seem the two most likely here. Although dropping back a 100m may not be ideal for Churchill Express at 6.50 he's way overs. I'm always a little wary when mares are resuming but concede Melting Moments will be tough to beat if turning up fully fit and in form.
Advised Bet: Churchill Express 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365 with the guarantees they offer.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Waller runs four here and they take out about 60% plus of the market on early figures. That gives up some value looking elsewhere and the two I like are Lucky Liason who comes here off the back of a fine effort when almost landing the Cup at Taree, likes the wet and has won here over this trip and his rider gets to claim 3kg's here and, Miss Venus who will be fully fit now and has a 2200m win here last prep to her credit,ran well in the wet last time and again has the 3kg claim.
Advised Bets: Lucky Liason 0.75 units at 6.80 or better-take the 8.0 (WG) at Bet 365
Miss Venus 0.65 at 8.0 or better-take the 11.0 (WG) at Bet365
Further bets updates sent via Twitter.
St Leger meeting at Doncaster gets underway later today and there will be another blog out for that.
Warwick Farm had plenty of rain overnight and is a Heavy 8.The rain seems to have cleared now so it's just a question of how accurate that 8 rating is. Doubt it will deteriorate further as no more rain seems likely.
Two early bets today have both already been sent via Twitter but the prices are still there .
Bendigo
Race 5
Churchill Express and Melting Moments seem the two most likely here. Although dropping back a 100m may not be ideal for Churchill Express at 6.50 he's way overs. I'm always a little wary when mares are resuming but concede Melting Moments will be tough to beat if turning up fully fit and in form.
Advised Bet: Churchill Express 1.10 units at 4.80 or better-take the 6.50 with Bet 365 with the guarantees they offer.
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Waller runs four here and they take out about 60% plus of the market on early figures. That gives up some value looking elsewhere and the two I like are Lucky Liason who comes here off the back of a fine effort when almost landing the Cup at Taree, likes the wet and has won here over this trip and his rider gets to claim 3kg's here and, Miss Venus who will be fully fit now and has a 2200m win here last prep to her credit,ran well in the wet last time and again has the 3kg claim.
Advised Bets: Lucky Liason 0.75 units at 6.80 or better-take the 8.0 (WG) at Bet 365
Miss Venus 0.65 at 8.0 or better-take the 11.0 (WG) at Bet365
Further bets updates sent via Twitter.
St Leger meeting at Doncaster gets underway later today and there will be another blog out for that.
Sunday, 7 September 2014
Weekly Round Up and YTD Figures
Decent week to kick start September. Here are the figures:-
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 4 races - No winners
Stakes 3.50
Loss 3.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 10 races -2 winners
Stakes 10.85
Profit 6.48 units
Weekly total for Australia Profit 2.98 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog -Bets in 1 race - 1 winner
Stakes 0.75
Profit 6.00 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets in 2 races - 1winner
Stakes 2.65
Profit 4.78 units
Weekly total for UK Profit 10.78 units
Overall total for the week 13.76 units.
The combined figures for blogs and tweets for the year to date are Stakes 373.05, Profit 71.70 units for POT of 19.22%.
After advising that the numbers were too low to start the planned "private service " last week I had a few emails from people saying they wanted to come on board. Unfortunately it's too late now for this year but if you have already contacted me then you should have had a reply explaining that things were not going ahead as the numbers were not big enough. I'll put the idea on hold now until January as I am relocating at the end of the year and want to get that out of the way first. If you made contact already then you'll be first in line but anyone else who is interested should email me their interest. I won't ever take more than 30 otherwise there are too many people chasing too little but do need at least 15 to begin. I can't do it properly without some help during racing and they have to be paid obviously.
Australia
Bets advised in the blog - Bets in 4 races - No winners
Stakes 3.50
Loss 3.50 units
Bets advised via Twitter - Bets in 10 races -2 winners
Stakes 10.85
Profit 6.48 units
Weekly total for Australia Profit 2.98 units
UK & Int.
Bets advised in the blog -Bets in 1 race - 1 winner
Stakes 0.75
Profit 6.00 units
Bets advised by Twitter - Bets in 2 races - 1winner
Stakes 2.65
Profit 4.78 units
Weekly total for UK Profit 10.78 units
Overall total for the week 13.76 units.
The combined figures for blogs and tweets for the year to date are Stakes 373.05, Profit 71.70 units for POT of 19.22%.
After advising that the numbers were too low to start the planned "private service " last week I had a few emails from people saying they wanted to come on board. Unfortunately it's too late now for this year but if you have already contacted me then you should have had a reply explaining that things were not going ahead as the numbers were not big enough. I'll put the idea on hold now until January as I am relocating at the end of the year and want to get that out of the way first. If you made contact already then you'll be first in line but anyone else who is interested should email me their interest. I won't ever take more than 30 otherwise there are too many people chasing too little but do need at least 15 to begin. I can't do it properly without some help during racing and they have to be paid obviously.
Saturday, 6 September 2014
Saturday's UK Racing
A few possibilities today but just the one early bet:
Ascot
Race 1
Good handicap but both Safety Check and Cornrow look capable of better. At the current odds Safety Check makes most appeal especially with a handy 5lb claimer aboard.May save or more on Cornrow if the price get's out a little. Will advise via Twitter later
Advised Bet: Safety Check 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
There won't be a lot today but there almost certainly will be more.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Recovering from a poor week health wise so apologies for today's blogs being brief
Ascot
Race 1
Good handicap but both Safety Check and Cornrow look capable of better. At the current odds Safety Check makes most appeal especially with a handy 5lb claimer aboard.May save or more on Cornrow if the price get's out a little. Will advise via Twitter later
Advised Bet: Safety Check 0.75 units at 7.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
There won't be a lot today but there almost certainly will be more.
Bets/Updates sent via Twitter.
Recovering from a poor week health wise so apologies for today's blogs being brief
Friday, 5 September 2014
Moonee Valley & Randwick Today
Moonee Valley is a Good 3 and dry so expect decent racing ground there.
Randwick is down to a Heavy 9 after being deluged this morning-it may be or get worse so monitor conditions.
Very unwell this week but much better today but short on time so the blog has to be brief.
One race I've played in early
Randwick R8
Rock Sturdy is a worthy favourite but far too short in these conditions.Corryvrekan and Supreme Warrior are hardened battlers proven in these conditions and both are solid value here. This has already gone out by twitter as an early bet: 0.65 units Corryvreckan -take 9.0 with Luxbet (now gone) and 0.55 units Supreme Warrior -take the 19.0 with Bet365 still available. Will be recorded as a bet sent via Twitter for record keeping purposes.
There will be more today I'm sure sent via twitter and I'll try to find time for a UK blog covering the good racing there later today
Randwick is down to a Heavy 9 after being deluged this morning-it may be or get worse so monitor conditions.
Very unwell this week but much better today but short on time so the blog has to be brief.
One race I've played in early
Randwick R8
Rock Sturdy is a worthy favourite but far too short in these conditions.Corryvrekan and Supreme Warrior are hardened battlers proven in these conditions and both are solid value here. This has already gone out by twitter as an early bet: 0.65 units Corryvreckan -take 9.0 with Luxbet (now gone) and 0.55 units Supreme Warrior -take the 19.0 with Bet365 still available. Will be recorded as a bet sent via Twitter for record keeping purposes.
There will be more today I'm sure sent via twitter and I'll try to find time for a UK blog covering the good racing there later today
Tuesday, 2 September 2014
Sandown & Canterbury Today
Sandown is a Dead 5 and improving so there's a fair chance that it will upgrade.
Canterbury is a Slow 7 and it's missed the rain this morning but there is some working up from the South. If the rain misses it's very windy so it should dry out a fair bit but if the rain does hit then maybe it'll stay wet.Obviously monitor. Strong winds may be a factor too.
Canterbury R4
I'm right out of step with the market here. I have Nordic Duke at 7.0 MAX here yet he's available with Bet365 at 17.0. He's travelled up from Melbourne so maybe there is a negative attached to the journey. He's a point higher than when he last won and most subsequent efforts have been sound. There should be OK speed on upfront here to help him get home, he likes the wet and has a handy 3kg's claimer aboard
Advised Bet; Nordic Duke 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-take the 17.0
There may be more at Canterbury later via twitter
Sandown
Race 4
I like Zeletto and he'll be hard to beat.I also like Farolitos enough to stop me taking a thin price about Zeletto although a 1000m might be a bit sharp for him.
Does anyone have a rational explanation why an unraced horse can debut in a handicap with anything other than top weight? Hammered has had no trials or runs yet he's allotted 55.5 kg's.It's a benchmark 70. This is nonsense. It happened last year when a filly trained by Danny O'brien debued in a Saturday handicap of a low weight and beat the favourite. Surely if you want to bypass the maidens and go to a handicap untried you must get top weight. Greg Carpenter please explain!
Race 6
After the way he's gone over the last year I get wary thinking that one of D.K. Weir's is too short but despite Must Be Mink having solid claims here 3.40 is too short. Much more appealing is Elle Excite who won really well at Mornington and was well backed to do so. The extra 200m will suit her.The last win was on wet but she's proven on drier and has a nice gate. She has upside and I have her on top marginally here. 7.50 looks big overs but she's blown a bit this morning and is bigger on the totes.
Advised Bet: Elle Excite 1 unit at 5.50 or over- have 35% at the 7.50 and monitor closely with the balance.
Race 7
Yesterday's Songs is very obvious here and if all goes well in the run he'll be very hard to beat. I don't like gate 1 for get back horses though and he will need a good steer. At 2.50 I won't be playing.Mahican draws to be handier today and he's the other obvious hope.
When Fracking won his UK maiden he bolted up by 5 lengths. The runner up (was level weights) now races of a UK mark of 88 (translates to Aussie scale around 77). Here's Fracking of a mark of 67.
He made all at Goodwood that day and from gate 3 could lead here. If he's fit and ready he's overs here at 21.0
Advised Bet: Fracking 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 21.0 with Bet365 as they have guarantees if it blows (best tote)
Race 8
Most of these are out for first up effort getting fitter for further. The 3 that look suited and are fit are Digitalism, Longeron and St Mark. By far the most appealing of that trio is Digitalism and he's a solid pecentage bet here. The other one that is interesting at odds is Martinvast who should push on from a wide gate.
Advised Bet Digitalism 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-take the 5.0 with 365
Martinvast 0.30 units at 19.0 or better-take the 34.0 with 365
Canterbury is a Slow 7 and it's missed the rain this morning but there is some working up from the South. If the rain misses it's very windy so it should dry out a fair bit but if the rain does hit then maybe it'll stay wet.Obviously monitor. Strong winds may be a factor too.
Canterbury R4
I'm right out of step with the market here. I have Nordic Duke at 7.0 MAX here yet he's available with Bet365 at 17.0. He's travelled up from Melbourne so maybe there is a negative attached to the journey. He's a point higher than when he last won and most subsequent efforts have been sound. There should be OK speed on upfront here to help him get home, he likes the wet and has a handy 3kg's claimer aboard
Advised Bet; Nordic Duke 0.60 units at 8.50 or better-take the 17.0
There may be more at Canterbury later via twitter
Sandown
Race 4
I like Zeletto and he'll be hard to beat.I also like Farolitos enough to stop me taking a thin price about Zeletto although a 1000m might be a bit sharp for him.
Does anyone have a rational explanation why an unraced horse can debut in a handicap with anything other than top weight? Hammered has had no trials or runs yet he's allotted 55.5 kg's.It's a benchmark 70. This is nonsense. It happened last year when a filly trained by Danny O'brien debued in a Saturday handicap of a low weight and beat the favourite. Surely if you want to bypass the maidens and go to a handicap untried you must get top weight. Greg Carpenter please explain!
Race 6
After the way he's gone over the last year I get wary thinking that one of D.K. Weir's is too short but despite Must Be Mink having solid claims here 3.40 is too short. Much more appealing is Elle Excite who won really well at Mornington and was well backed to do so. The extra 200m will suit her.The last win was on wet but she's proven on drier and has a nice gate. She has upside and I have her on top marginally here. 7.50 looks big overs but she's blown a bit this morning and is bigger on the totes.
Advised Bet: Elle Excite 1 unit at 5.50 or over- have 35% at the 7.50 and monitor closely with the balance.
Race 7
Yesterday's Songs is very obvious here and if all goes well in the run he'll be very hard to beat. I don't like gate 1 for get back horses though and he will need a good steer. At 2.50 I won't be playing.Mahican draws to be handier today and he's the other obvious hope.
When Fracking won his UK maiden he bolted up by 5 lengths. The runner up (was level weights) now races of a UK mark of 88 (translates to Aussie scale around 77). Here's Fracking of a mark of 67.
He made all at Goodwood that day and from gate 3 could lead here. If he's fit and ready he's overs here at 21.0
Advised Bet: Fracking 0.45 units at 12.0 or better-take the 21.0 with Bet365 as they have guarantees if it blows (best tote)
Race 8
Most of these are out for first up effort getting fitter for further. The 3 that look suited and are fit are Digitalism, Longeron and St Mark. By far the most appealing of that trio is Digitalism and he's a solid pecentage bet here. The other one that is interesting at odds is Martinvast who should push on from a wide gate.
Advised Bet Digitalism 1.15 units at 4.50 or better-take the 5.0 with 365
Martinvast 0.30 units at 19.0 or better-take the 34.0 with 365
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