A profitably week but one of mixed fortunes and with a tad more luck it could have been a very good one.All the bets again advised via Twitter with bets in seven races producing two winners (including the Doncaster winner Sacred Falls at double figure odds) and two that were run down late after trading at <1.05 on Betfair in the run. The profit on the week is 3.40 units on a turnover of 8.30 units.
Sydney's Autumn carnival still has two Saturdays to run and the better horses are beginning to appear on the UK/European scene with good classic trials last weekend and the Newmarket Craven Meeting on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
After Kingman demolished the opposition in last Saturday's Greenham Stakes I was amazed (pleasantly) that the normally miserly UK bookies had him generally 3.00 for the 2,000 Guineas.
I tweeted straight after the race that I though 3.00 was big overs and that the horse would probably start in the red on Guineas day.
I managed to get a decent amount matched at > 3.0 on Betfair and have traded back this lunchtime at 2.28 for a modest profit if the horse is beaten or scratched and a four figure profit to nothing if he wins. Wish it was always that easy!
Back Wednesday
Sunday, 13 April 2014
Friday, 11 April 2014
Championships Begin at Randwick & Caulfield
The much heralded ATC "Championships" begin at Randwick today with four G1's all with a massive injection of prize money.Is it money well spent?Are the fields much stronger than they would have been without the extra millions?Will Sydney's Championships soon rival Melbourn's Spring Carnival?
You may have a different opinion to me but my answer to all three questions is an unequivocal NO.
Who's money is being spent here really? Well if your a punter it's yours-that's where they get the vast majority of it from YOU. If you are happy subsidising the assorted Sheiks,Coolmores,Arrowfields,Widdens and the other plethora of fat cats as they swan around having a great time whilst vacuuming up your dollars then fine.Personally I think we are all being taken for a ride.
Anyway it's still terrific racing as it usually is but Randwick is wet as it usually is too at this time of year.Heavy 9 and coastal showers threatening more rain throughout the day.
One bet advised early by twitter but here it is again
Randwick R7 Gordon Lord Byron 1 unit to win at 5.20 or better-the 6.0 has gone but 5.50 is still available.May save here on Lankan Rupee.
Randwick R8 Shortlist for the Doncaster:- Weary (wet no problem) Messene (wet a big worry) Sacred Falls (career best this race last year on wet) Hawkspur (ready to win) Royal Descent (loves wet and steady prep-ready),El Roca (improving 3-y-o,handles slow ok),Dissident (form equal of El Roca).Maybe, a strategy around these runners and will advise via Twitter closer to post time.
Caulfield is a Slow and probably stays that way.No early bets but possibilities there today and in the other Randwick races.
Bets/Updates throughout the afternoon sent via twitter
You may have a different opinion to me but my answer to all three questions is an unequivocal NO.
Who's money is being spent here really? Well if your a punter it's yours-that's where they get the vast majority of it from YOU. If you are happy subsidising the assorted Sheiks,Coolmores,Arrowfields,Widdens and the other plethora of fat cats as they swan around having a great time whilst vacuuming up your dollars then fine.Personally I think we are all being taken for a ride.
Anyway it's still terrific racing as it usually is but Randwick is wet as it usually is too at this time of year.Heavy 9 and coastal showers threatening more rain throughout the day.
One bet advised early by twitter but here it is again
Randwick R7 Gordon Lord Byron 1 unit to win at 5.20 or better-the 6.0 has gone but 5.50 is still available.May save here on Lankan Rupee.
Randwick R8 Shortlist for the Doncaster:- Weary (wet no problem) Messene (wet a big worry) Sacred Falls (career best this race last year on wet) Hawkspur (ready to win) Royal Descent (loves wet and steady prep-ready),El Roca (improving 3-y-o,handles slow ok),Dissident (form equal of El Roca).Maybe, a strategy around these runners and will advise via Twitter closer to post time.
Caulfield is a Slow and probably stays that way.No early bets but possibilities there today and in the other Randwick races.
Bets/Updates throughout the afternoon sent via twitter
Tuesday, 8 April 2014
Sandown & Warwick Farm today
Sandown is posted a Dead 5 with light rain around all morning and a forecast for more perhaps heavier-monitor.Warwick Farm is posted a Heavy 8 and it's dry and warm there so I expect it upgrades to Slow.
I have a plethora of "Blackbookers" engaged today but it hasn't really helped me identify anything I want to charge into at early odds.When you are dealing with rain affected tracks like we are today there is very little point in going off early unless you think you are getting really outstanding value.Those early markets are all running at 25% plus overounds and there is a much higher chance of late withdrawals (deductions from winnings) when there is uncertainty regarding track conditions.The chances of track bias also greatly increases.
So no early bets today but a few possibilities perhaps as markets open up and track patterns are established.
Bets/updates sent by Twitter throughout the afternoon
I have a plethora of "Blackbookers" engaged today but it hasn't really helped me identify anything I want to charge into at early odds.When you are dealing with rain affected tracks like we are today there is very little point in going off early unless you think you are getting really outstanding value.Those early markets are all running at 25% plus overounds and there is a much higher chance of late withdrawals (deductions from winnings) when there is uncertainty regarding track conditions.The chances of track bias also greatly increases.
So no early bets today but a few possibilities perhaps as markets open up and track patterns are established.
Bets/updates sent by Twitter throughout the afternoon
Sunday, 6 April 2014
Weekly Round Up
A busier week and a good one.
Bets advised in 9 markets last week (all sent via Twitter) with 3 winners and a profit of 6.31 units for the week.
Three big Saturdays coming up at Randwick and the UK season continues it's spluttering start but it'll get gradually busier as the month progresses.
I'm streamlining things this year and focusing on the better days both in Australia and in the UK.The UK in particular has some very poor days midweek away from the festival meetings and I'll be giving those day's a miss.
Friday's in Victoria during Winter are almost exclusively on the Geelong synthetic as are plenty of Tuesday's so they are easy day's to avoid too.Generally I'll be operating Wednesday to Sunday but with occasional exceptions.
Back Wednesday
Bets advised in 9 markets last week (all sent via Twitter) with 3 winners and a profit of 6.31 units for the week.
Three big Saturdays coming up at Randwick and the UK season continues it's spluttering start but it'll get gradually busier as the month progresses.
I'm streamlining things this year and focusing on the better days both in Australia and in the UK.The UK in particular has some very poor days midweek away from the festival meetings and I'll be giving those day's a miss.
Friday's in Victoria during Winter are almost exclusively on the Geelong synthetic as are plenty of Tuesday's so they are easy day's to avoid too.Generally I'll be operating Wednesday to Sunday but with occasional exceptions.
Back Wednesday
Friday, 4 April 2014
Golden Slipper,BMW,and Vinery at Rosehill & Flemington
A sombre week for Australian racing particularly in NSW with the tragic loss of a fine jockey and a young man who was a credit to racing, his family and to Australia.Vale Nathan Berry.
The rejigging of the Sydney Autumn Carnival was bound to have some negative consequences and the first obvious one is that this day looks to have lost some of it's former lustre.Still there are three G1's and obviously it's very good racing just not quite what we have come to expect from "Slipper"day.
The Golden Slipper itself is lacking something this year and ultimately that may not be too bad a thing.The introduction of shuttle stallions and the great success imported horses have had over here in the distance races has breeders producing more stoutly bred stock.
The Australian obsession with breeding for speed has had a detrimental effect on the quality of Australian middle distance and staying stock over the last three decades.That trend is now gradually reversing and this race is likely to drop off a bit over the next decade.
Rosehill is a Heavy 8 and dry now but a possibility of afternoon rain.
There is one likely bet at Rosehill but I'm not on yet and not definitely committed and a couple of possibilities after I've seen how the track and weather are holding up.
Flemington is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast conditions.It's a very competitive programme and I've struggled to find anything that I want to back at early odds.Possibilities as the afternoon progresses and the markets open up a bit.
Bet's and updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon.Hopefully I can keep the run going-2 from 3 this week via twitter for a profit of 7.59 units
The rejigging of the Sydney Autumn Carnival was bound to have some negative consequences and the first obvious one is that this day looks to have lost some of it's former lustre.Still there are three G1's and obviously it's very good racing just not quite what we have come to expect from "Slipper"day.
The Golden Slipper itself is lacking something this year and ultimately that may not be too bad a thing.The introduction of shuttle stallions and the great success imported horses have had over here in the distance races has breeders producing more stoutly bred stock.
The Australian obsession with breeding for speed has had a detrimental effect on the quality of Australian middle distance and staying stock over the last three decades.That trend is now gradually reversing and this race is likely to drop off a bit over the next decade.
Rosehill is a Heavy 8 and dry now but a possibility of afternoon rain.
There is one likely bet at Rosehill but I'm not on yet and not definitely committed and a couple of possibilities after I've seen how the track and weather are holding up.
Flemington is a Good 3 and it's dry so expect fast conditions.It's a very competitive programme and I've struggled to find anything that I want to back at early odds.Possibilities as the afternoon progresses and the markets open up a bit.
Bet's and updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon.Hopefully I can keep the run going-2 from 3 this week via twitter for a profit of 7.59 units
Tuesday, 1 April 2014
Sandown & Warwick Farm Today
Sandown is posted a Good 3 but is subject to showers and will probably downgrade.Warwick farm is a Slow 6 but the weather is fine and an upgrade is very likely.
I've done no business on anything yet but there definite possibilities today depending on how markets shape up.I may have already missed the boat with one but may still go ahead anyway.
Bets/updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon
I've done no business on anything yet but there definite possibilities today depending on how markets shape up.I may have already missed the boat with one but may still go ahead anyway.
Bets/updates via Twitter throughout the afternoon
March Round Up
It's taking a while to fully get into the swing of things this year.January I took time off and had a spell in hospital and February seemed to be just lots of catching up and not really feeling very confident about anything.March has been much better although the volume of trade is still well down but is increasing and should be back to normal this coming month. Anyway less has been better with a steady flow of winners from limited selections.So far this year the figures are (blog posts bets and tweeted bets) Stakes 38.70 units Profit 19.34 POT 49.97%.
Here are the figures for March
International (Dubai World Cup Night)
Blog Stakes 1.25 Loss 1.25
Tweets Stakes 2.0 Loss 2.00
International Loss 3.25 units
Australia
Blog Bets in 3 markets -2 winners
Stakes 3.95
Profit 13.65 units
Tweets Bets in 22 markets- 5 winners (1 a saver bet)
Stakes 24.70
Profit 7.23 units
Australia Win 20.88 units
Grand total for March Stakes 31.90 Profit 17.63 units POT 55.27%
Hopefully the profits will keep coming as the year goes on but there is no realistic hope of maintaining these margins over time and there is bound to be a dud month or two unless it's a stellar year.
The UK flat (turf) racing started last Saturday but now there is nothing really happening until after this week's Aintree Festival and Saturday's Grand National.
I'm trying to find time to get the web site up and running with a live page happening that is constantly updating but I need help from the women at home Mother and/or Daughter to set it up as both are very IT savvy.I'm considering cutting off the money supply unless they fix it up for me (been waiting weeks now) but neither are pushovers and retaliation is always on the cards.Fingers crossed it'll be done this month.
Back tomorrow
Here are the figures for March
International (Dubai World Cup Night)
Blog Stakes 1.25 Loss 1.25
Tweets Stakes 2.0 Loss 2.00
International Loss 3.25 units
Australia
Blog Bets in 3 markets -2 winners
Stakes 3.95
Profit 13.65 units
Tweets Bets in 22 markets- 5 winners (1 a saver bet)
Stakes 24.70
Profit 7.23 units
Australia Win 20.88 units
Grand total for March Stakes 31.90 Profit 17.63 units POT 55.27%
Hopefully the profits will keep coming as the year goes on but there is no realistic hope of maintaining these margins over time and there is bound to be a dud month or two unless it's a stellar year.
The UK flat (turf) racing started last Saturday but now there is nothing really happening until after this week's Aintree Festival and Saturday's Grand National.
I'm trying to find time to get the web site up and running with a live page happening that is constantly updating but I need help from the women at home Mother and/or Daughter to set it up as both are very IT savvy.I'm considering cutting off the money supply unless they fix it up for me (been waiting weeks now) but neither are pushovers and retaliation is always on the cards.Fingers crossed it'll be done this month.
Back tomorrow
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