I was sick yesterday so apologies for no blog.I'm short of time so just the bets today.
Fine and sunny at both Caulfield (Dead 4-maybe an upgrade) and Randwick ( Good 3-only gets quicker).
There are more possibilities later as markets open up and I had a look at track patterns (if any!).For now here are the definite bets
Caulfield
Race 4 Possible bet on Kuroshio but will confirm via Twitter later
Race 5
Advised Bet; Shamal Wind 1.90 units at 2.80 or better-3.10 is best now and is ok but may trade around 3.30 on Betfair at some point
Race 7 Possible bet on It Is Written but will confirm via twitter later
Race 9
Advised Bet; Mouro 0.70 units at 8.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 10 Possible Bet on Long John but will confirm later via Twitter
Randwick
Race 1
Advised Bet: Entirely Platinum 0.75 at 7.0 or better-take the 10.0 on offer now for 505 of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Other possibilities at Randwick will be sent via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
Friday, 11 October 2013
Wednesday, 9 October 2013
Ballarat Today
These Thursday fixtures at Ballarat can be a bit hit and miss.I believe the track is closing down after the Ballarat cup meeting so they can do some remedial work on it.It would be good if they could begin using the "outer" track when the work is finished.They only seem to use the "inner" track nowadays which is tighter and nothing like as big..Anyway some of the meetings they have had there over the last couple of years have been utterly dreadful.The midweek meeting held there last week (on a Wednesday) was absolute rubbish and run on a glue pot surface.
The harsh reality is that there are far too many racecourses,racehorses,trainers etc.The whole thing need rationalising and updating.I have no idea why we have to race 7 days a week in Victoria and NSW.Surely the Trots and the Dogs could have center stage a couple of days a week.Alternatively different states could have there prime midweek day on different days of the week.
Today's meeting is actually OK.There are some interesting maidens and the handicaps are reasonably easy to get a handle on.
I'm struggling so far this month so I need to lift my game a bit.I'm interested in two today at this stage and a couple more if markets lean too heavily towards the obvious favourites and create value elsewhere.At the moment markets are at 135% or more so there no point in going in there early.Races 1 and 6 are likely bets though so if your intested look out for "tweets 10/15 mins before jump time
The harsh reality is that there are far too many racecourses,racehorses,trainers etc.The whole thing need rationalising and updating.I have no idea why we have to race 7 days a week in Victoria and NSW.Surely the Trots and the Dogs could have center stage a couple of days a week.Alternatively different states could have there prime midweek day on different days of the week.
Today's meeting is actually OK.There are some interesting maidens and the handicaps are reasonably easy to get a handle on.
I'm struggling so far this month so I need to lift my game a bit.I'm interested in two today at this stage and a couple more if markets lean too heavily towards the obvious favourites and create value elsewhere.At the moment markets are at 135% or more so there no point in going in there early.Races 1 and 6 are likely bets though so if your intested look out for "tweets 10/15 mins before jump time
Tuesday, 8 October 2013
Mornigton & Warwick Farm Today
Midweek metro meeting at Mornington and Warwick Farm.Both are now a Good 3 and warm dry conditions at both venues.
Tricky day to find ones I want to back in morning markets but there is one I've backed early
Mornigton
Race 6
I thought that this chiefly concerned Heyday and Perfect Offering.Heyday is promising and she did well to finish as close as she did last time after being knocked sideways approaching the turn after being stuck in traffic most of the run.I have her favourite here at 3.0 and they bet 4.40 earlier but Sportingbet/Centrebet are still 3.90 which is still good value on my figures.Perfect Offering has strong form for a race like this but so far she's had 15 goes and only won her maiden.The market has her favourite at 3.0 out from 2.60 but I'd much rather be with the lightly raced and progressive Heyday.
Advised Bet: Heyday 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.90 now
There are possibilities if markets change and if I'm backing anything else I'll send via Twitter a few minutes before jump time
Tricky day to find ones I want to back in morning markets but there is one I've backed early
Mornigton
Race 6
I thought that this chiefly concerned Heyday and Perfect Offering.Heyday is promising and she did well to finish as close as she did last time after being knocked sideways approaching the turn after being stuck in traffic most of the run.I have her favourite here at 3.0 and they bet 4.40 earlier but Sportingbet/Centrebet are still 3.90 which is still good value on my figures.Perfect Offering has strong form for a race like this but so far she's had 15 goes and only won her maiden.The market has her favourite at 3.0 out from 2.60 but I'd much rather be with the lightly raced and progressive Heyday.
Advised Bet: Heyday 1.65 units at 3.20 or better-take the 3.90 now
There are possibilities if markets change and if I'm backing anything else I'll send via Twitter a few minutes before jump time
Monday, 7 October 2013
Weekly Round Up
Treve's win in yesterday's 'Arc in Paris was as stunning a performance as I can remember in that race since Dancing Brave's breathtaking win back in 1986.She didn't settle in the early stages of the race and had to travel wide throughout but from the moment she cruised up on the home turn it was simply a question of by how far she would win.
Punting wise it's been a tough week despite getting 40.0 plus odds on Happy Trails in the Turnbull last Saturday which was the only bright spot in a frustrating an annoying week.The blog in total finished 4.8 units down on the week.The drought in winners over in the UK continues although there weren't many bets last week.
I had one of those nightmare Betfair cock ups on Tuesday when the trading software froze and I was left with a four figure liability in a 4 runner -58 grade race at Kilmore.I have strict rules about not leaving myself exposed late but somehow let my guard down this time and of course got caned.It's happened before but not for a very long time and I was murderous with myself afterwards.
Hoping and expecting a better week ahead.
Punting wise it's been a tough week despite getting 40.0 plus odds on Happy Trails in the Turnbull last Saturday which was the only bright spot in a frustrating an annoying week.The blog in total finished 4.8 units down on the week.The drought in winners over in the UK continues although there weren't many bets last week.
I had one of those nightmare Betfair cock ups on Tuesday when the trading software froze and I was left with a four figure liability in a 4 runner -58 grade race at Kilmore.I have strict rules about not leaving myself exposed late but somehow let my guard down this time and of course got caned.It's happened before but not for a very long time and I was murderous with myself afterwards.
Hoping and expecting a better week ahead.
Sunday, 6 October 2013
Swan Hill and Kensington Today
After a full on weekend we now public holiday racing at Kensington and a standard country meeting at Swan Hill.I've fallen a bit behind due to the heavy schedule and I haven't finished the form for today's meetings yet.There are definite possibilities but if you are interested in them you will have to monitor Twitter.If I'm playing I'll get them out at least 10/15 mins. before jump time.
'Arc Day at Longchamp
Soft ground at Longchamp for French racing's showpiece.
The fields at Longchamp three weeks ago for the 'Arc trials were the strongest I can remember so it's disappointing to report that today's big day seems a bit less strong overall than is usual.The 'Arc is a very good renewal though and the best field assembled for any race run so far this year worldwide.
Not many races today that I really want to have a bet in.The 2-y-o races look very open and it's not easy lining the form up.The 'Abbaye looks far too complex and the 'Opera looks a very tricky F&M's event.The Foret looks Moonlight Cloud's race but she'll be around 1.50/1.60 in Paris and the 1.83 on offer with the bookies looks to big but I don't want to back at odds on.I may back Tac De Boistron in the Cadran.He bolted in last time and he still could have a bit more improvement in him.His half brother is a 3 mile chaser so hopefully he can stay the trip.If I'm backing him I'll send a message via Twitter.So at this stage only one bet
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe
Two runners stand out from the rest the Japanese Orfevre and the French filly Treve.I've tried to be as objective as possible with Orfevre and have played the devil's advocate in finding all the reasons why he won't win but he's the most talented horse around anywhere at the moment and the good draw is the real cincher for me.Last year he was enormous getting to the front in a few bounds from a poor position and it's still hard to believe he got beat so majestically did he round them up and go clear.He's quirky but he is brilliant and wet ground is fine for him.
Treve is an outstanding filly and without Orfevre in the race I would back her to overcome the bad draw.But the fact is that he will have the position turning and she will have to outsprint him and I doubt she can.If it all goes wrong again for the Japanese runner then I think the race will be hers.
My figures are Orfevre 2.80 ,Treve 4.80.Orfevre is 3.45 with Betfair and 3.50 with Ladbrokes and that will not last.Treve is 6.0 with Ladbrokes and 5.80 with Betfair.Expect these two to be very strong on the French tote Orfevre particularly so
Advised Bet: Orfevre 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-take the 3.50 now-save on Treve 0.40 units at 5.0 or better- take the 6.0 now.
The fields at Longchamp three weeks ago for the 'Arc trials were the strongest I can remember so it's disappointing to report that today's big day seems a bit less strong overall than is usual.The 'Arc is a very good renewal though and the best field assembled for any race run so far this year worldwide.
Not many races today that I really want to have a bet in.The 2-y-o races look very open and it's not easy lining the form up.The 'Abbaye looks far too complex and the 'Opera looks a very tricky F&M's event.The Foret looks Moonlight Cloud's race but she'll be around 1.50/1.60 in Paris and the 1.83 on offer with the bookies looks to big but I don't want to back at odds on.I may back Tac De Boistron in the Cadran.He bolted in last time and he still could have a bit more improvement in him.His half brother is a 3 mile chaser so hopefully he can stay the trip.If I'm backing him I'll send a message via Twitter.So at this stage only one bet
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe
Two runners stand out from the rest the Japanese Orfevre and the French filly Treve.I've tried to be as objective as possible with Orfevre and have played the devil's advocate in finding all the reasons why he won't win but he's the most talented horse around anywhere at the moment and the good draw is the real cincher for me.Last year he was enormous getting to the front in a few bounds from a poor position and it's still hard to believe he got beat so majestically did he round them up and go clear.He's quirky but he is brilliant and wet ground is fine for him.
Treve is an outstanding filly and without Orfevre in the race I would back her to overcome the bad draw.But the fact is that he will have the position turning and she will have to outsprint him and I doubt she can.If it all goes wrong again for the Japanese runner then I think the race will be hers.
My figures are Orfevre 2.80 ,Treve 4.80.Orfevre is 3.45 with Betfair and 3.50 with Ladbrokes and that will not last.Treve is 6.0 with Ladbrokes and 5.80 with Betfair.Expect these two to be very strong on the French tote Orfevre particularly so
Advised Bet: Orfevre 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-take the 3.50 now-save on Treve 0.40 units at 5.0 or better- take the 6.0 now.
Saturday, 5 October 2013
Saturday's UK and French Racing
Very good cards at Ascot (soft) ,Newmarket ( Good to Firm) Redcar (Good to Firm) and Longchamp (Soft).It's dry everywhere so the ground will quicken up a bit everywhere.
I've got a short list of possibilities today but with so much on a the moment I am taking time out for a couple of hours to have a nap.My brain's a bit fried with racing going on everywhere but it's great racing this weekend so you have to do your very best.
There is one definite bet at the moment but I'm sure there will be more and they will go out via Twitter as early as possible.
Ascot
Race 1
Doc Hay won this race last year.He has ideal conditions to follow up again this year,a likely strong pace and cut in the ground.The first time hood seemed to galvanise him back to form last time and if he gets the break here he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Doc Hay 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
I've got a short list of possibilities today but with so much on a the moment I am taking time out for a couple of hours to have a nap.My brain's a bit fried with racing going on everywhere but it's great racing this weekend so you have to do your very best.
There is one definite bet at the moment but I'm sure there will be more and they will go out via Twitter as early as possible.
Ascot
Race 1
Doc Hay won this race last year.He has ideal conditions to follow up again this year,a likely strong pace and cut in the ground.The first time hood seemed to galvanise him back to form last time and if he gets the break here he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Doc Hay 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
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