Sunday, 6 October 2013
Swan Hill and Kensington Today
After a full on weekend we now public holiday racing at Kensington and a standard country meeting at Swan Hill.I've fallen a bit behind due to the heavy schedule and I haven't finished the form for today's meetings yet.There are definite possibilities but if you are interested in them you will have to monitor Twitter.If I'm playing I'll get them out at least 10/15 mins. before jump time.
'Arc Day at Longchamp
Soft ground at Longchamp for French racing's showpiece.
The fields at Longchamp three weeks ago for the 'Arc trials were the strongest I can remember so it's disappointing to report that today's big day seems a bit less strong overall than is usual.The 'Arc is a very good renewal though and the best field assembled for any race run so far this year worldwide.
Not many races today that I really want to have a bet in.The 2-y-o races look very open and it's not easy lining the form up.The 'Abbaye looks far too complex and the 'Opera looks a very tricky F&M's event.The Foret looks Moonlight Cloud's race but she'll be around 1.50/1.60 in Paris and the 1.83 on offer with the bookies looks to big but I don't want to back at odds on.I may back Tac De Boistron in the Cadran.He bolted in last time and he still could have a bit more improvement in him.His half brother is a 3 mile chaser so hopefully he can stay the trip.If I'm backing him I'll send a message via Twitter.So at this stage only one bet
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe
Two runners stand out from the rest the Japanese Orfevre and the French filly Treve.I've tried to be as objective as possible with Orfevre and have played the devil's advocate in finding all the reasons why he won't win but he's the most talented horse around anywhere at the moment and the good draw is the real cincher for me.Last year he was enormous getting to the front in a few bounds from a poor position and it's still hard to believe he got beat so majestically did he round them up and go clear.He's quirky but he is brilliant and wet ground is fine for him.
Treve is an outstanding filly and without Orfevre in the race I would back her to overcome the bad draw.But the fact is that he will have the position turning and she will have to outsprint him and I doubt she can.If it all goes wrong again for the Japanese runner then I think the race will be hers.
My figures are Orfevre 2.80 ,Treve 4.80.Orfevre is 3.45 with Betfair and 3.50 with Ladbrokes and that will not last.Treve is 6.0 with Ladbrokes and 5.80 with Betfair.Expect these two to be very strong on the French tote Orfevre particularly so
Advised Bet: Orfevre 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-take the 3.50 now-save on Treve 0.40 units at 5.0 or better- take the 6.0 now.
The fields at Longchamp three weeks ago for the 'Arc trials were the strongest I can remember so it's disappointing to report that today's big day seems a bit less strong overall than is usual.The 'Arc is a very good renewal though and the best field assembled for any race run so far this year worldwide.
Not many races today that I really want to have a bet in.The 2-y-o races look very open and it's not easy lining the form up.The 'Abbaye looks far too complex and the 'Opera looks a very tricky F&M's event.The Foret looks Moonlight Cloud's race but she'll be around 1.50/1.60 in Paris and the 1.83 on offer with the bookies looks to big but I don't want to back at odds on.I may back Tac De Boistron in the Cadran.He bolted in last time and he still could have a bit more improvement in him.His half brother is a 3 mile chaser so hopefully he can stay the trip.If I'm backing him I'll send a message via Twitter.So at this stage only one bet
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe
Two runners stand out from the rest the Japanese Orfevre and the French filly Treve.I've tried to be as objective as possible with Orfevre and have played the devil's advocate in finding all the reasons why he won't win but he's the most talented horse around anywhere at the moment and the good draw is the real cincher for me.Last year he was enormous getting to the front in a few bounds from a poor position and it's still hard to believe he got beat so majestically did he round them up and go clear.He's quirky but he is brilliant and wet ground is fine for him.
Treve is an outstanding filly and without Orfevre in the race I would back her to overcome the bad draw.But the fact is that he will have the position turning and she will have to outsprint him and I doubt she can.If it all goes wrong again for the Japanese runner then I think the race will be hers.
My figures are Orfevre 2.80 ,Treve 4.80.Orfevre is 3.45 with Betfair and 3.50 with Ladbrokes and that will not last.Treve is 6.0 with Ladbrokes and 5.80 with Betfair.Expect these two to be very strong on the French tote Orfevre particularly so
Advised Bet: Orfevre 1.75 units at 3.0 or better-take the 3.50 now-save on Treve 0.40 units at 5.0 or better- take the 6.0 now.
Saturday, 5 October 2013
Saturday's UK and French Racing
Very good cards at Ascot (soft) ,Newmarket ( Good to Firm) Redcar (Good to Firm) and Longchamp (Soft).It's dry everywhere so the ground will quicken up a bit everywhere.
I've got a short list of possibilities today but with so much on a the moment I am taking time out for a couple of hours to have a nap.My brain's a bit fried with racing going on everywhere but it's great racing this weekend so you have to do your very best.
There is one definite bet at the moment but I'm sure there will be more and they will go out via Twitter as early as possible.
Ascot
Race 1
Doc Hay won this race last year.He has ideal conditions to follow up again this year,a likely strong pace and cut in the ground.The first time hood seemed to galvanise him back to form last time and if he gets the break here he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Doc Hay 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
I've got a short list of possibilities today but with so much on a the moment I am taking time out for a couple of hours to have a nap.My brain's a bit fried with racing going on everywhere but it's great racing this weekend so you have to do your very best.
There is one definite bet at the moment but I'm sure there will be more and they will go out via Twitter as early as possible.
Ascot
Race 1
Doc Hay won this race last year.He has ideal conditions to follow up again this year,a likely strong pace and cut in the ground.The first time hood seemed to galvanise him back to form last time and if he gets the break here he'll be hard to beat.
Advised Bet: Doc Hay 0.85 units at 6.50 or better-take the 8.0 on offer now for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Friday, 4 October 2013
Epsom and Metropolitan at Randwick,Turnbull at Flemington
Excellent day's racing in prospect with the Epsom and the Metroploitan the two Randwick G1's and the Turnbull the G1 at Flemington.Both tracks are Dead 4 and both should be dry.Flemington will almost certainly be a Good 3 sooner than later.Rob Waterhouse was complaining on Twitter about Randwick watering last night aiming for a Dead track so you really will have to have a look at that track after the first couple of races.Good fast racing ground is what punters want not artificially produced surfaces that satisfy the "participants".Punters aren't considered participants by the NSW racing powers in case you hadn't already been aware of that.
Bookies will be betting very tight figures today so there is no need to go off early unless you are sure it's going to be a shortener.
Randwick
Race 7
I'll take the two Guy Walter trained runners Streama and Toydini against the field here. Collectively I have them rated 2.65 and both are on offer around 6.0 which coupled is 3.0 and enough of a margin to tempt me to play.Streama will be handy and she loves the Randwick mile and seems sure to figure in the finish.Toydini will be back and charging late.
Advised Bets: Streama 0.90 units at 5.50 or better-around 6.0 is ok doubt it get's much bigger
Toydini 0.90 units at 5.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Prince Cheri has just kept improving and I expect he's got a bit more to offer yet.He's a worthy favourite here and 4.60 makes plenty of appeal.I have him 3.80
Advised Bet; Prince Cheri 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-4.60 with Bet 365 (with guarantees) is OK
Flemington
Race 6
Sea Moon would win this easily if finding the best of his form.There hasn't been much sign of it on his two Aussie runs though and he's not a serious betting proposition at 2.80.Moudre and Tanby are possible alternatives but I'll take a chance on the ex Andre Fabre trained Brigantin at around 26.0.He's a better horse on fast ground so last weeks flop in the mud at Mornington is easily forgivable.If he's going to be a serious Melbourne cup hope he'll need to be going very close here today.I've got him at 12.0 so I see real value in his price
Advised Bet: Brigantin0.40 units EW at 14.0 or better-monitor betting and shop around
Race8
Most of these have Caulfield and Melbourne Cups in their sights so today is not Finals day.I don't want to be taking shorts about horses who are not going to be 100% firing until next start or later.With that in mind the ones that appeal as value are Dear Demi,Silent Achiever and Happy Trails and at the odds I'll be backing all three and hoping for a result
Advised Bets: Dear Demi 0.30 units at 15.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Silent Achiever 0.30 units at 15.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Happy Trails 0.20 units at 28.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Aeronautical has a G1 placing (beaten 0.2l) over track and distance.Sessions had the verdict over him last time but also had a much softer run.
Advised Bet: Aeronautical 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-take the 5.50 with Bet365 (with guarantees) for 50% or the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Bookies will be betting very tight figures today so there is no need to go off early unless you are sure it's going to be a shortener.
Randwick
Race 7
I'll take the two Guy Walter trained runners Streama and Toydini against the field here. Collectively I have them rated 2.65 and both are on offer around 6.0 which coupled is 3.0 and enough of a margin to tempt me to play.Streama will be handy and she loves the Randwick mile and seems sure to figure in the finish.Toydini will be back and charging late.
Advised Bets: Streama 0.90 units at 5.50 or better-around 6.0 is ok doubt it get's much bigger
Toydini 0.90 units at 5.50 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Prince Cheri has just kept improving and I expect he's got a bit more to offer yet.He's a worthy favourite here and 4.60 makes plenty of appeal.I have him 3.80
Advised Bet; Prince Cheri 1.30 units at 4.0 or better-4.60 with Bet 365 (with guarantees) is OK
Flemington
Race 6
Sea Moon would win this easily if finding the best of his form.There hasn't been much sign of it on his two Aussie runs though and he's not a serious betting proposition at 2.80.Moudre and Tanby are possible alternatives but I'll take a chance on the ex Andre Fabre trained Brigantin at around 26.0.He's a better horse on fast ground so last weeks flop in the mud at Mornington is easily forgivable.If he's going to be a serious Melbourne cup hope he'll need to be going very close here today.I've got him at 12.0 so I see real value in his price
Advised Bet: Brigantin0.40 units EW at 14.0 or better-monitor betting and shop around
Race8
Most of these have Caulfield and Melbourne Cups in their sights so today is not Finals day.I don't want to be taking shorts about horses who are not going to be 100% firing until next start or later.With that in mind the ones that appeal as value are Dear Demi,Silent Achiever and Happy Trails and at the odds I'll be backing all three and hoping for a result
Advised Bets: Dear Demi 0.30 units at 15.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Silent Achiever 0.30 units at 15.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Happy Trails 0.20 units at 28.0 or better-monitor on Betfair
Race 9
Aeronautical has a G1 placing (beaten 0.2l) over track and distance.Sessions had the verdict over him last time but also had a much softer run.
Advised Bet: Aeronautical 1.25 units at 4.20 or better-take the 5.50 with Bet365 (with guarantees) for 50% or the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Moonee Valley Tonight
Moonee Valley is now a Good 3 up from a Dead 4 and Melbourne is fine and dry so the track will only get quicker.It's not an easy card and most of the races make very limited appeal.There are however, couple at odds that I'm happy to be with.The rail is out 7 metres and that generally favours on pacers who can bag the rail.
Moonee Valley
Race 2
There are two engaged here that I have in my "blackbook" Lord Da Vinci and Duke's Delight.Lord Da Vinci ran very well on debut when favourite and just outpointed.He'll improve for the extra distance but at 2.50 he's definitely short enough.Duke's Delight ran well in a maiden at Seymour that strikes me as a race likely to throw up plenty of winners.He's big overs at around 21.0 and 7.0 the place on the totes.
Advised Bet: Dukes Delight 0.45 win units at 12.0 or better and 1.15 units a place at 4.50 or better
Monitor the betting here and shop around
Race 8
Electric Fusion is on a very attractive mark of 78 for a horse who split Hawkspur and Honorius when second in the Queensland Derby.He's had two trials but he does get back and this trip is short of his best.Xavi is a definite chance but there's no real value at around 3.50.Esprit Rossa has been a steady improver and I liked her win in a weaker race last time.It's harder here but she draws for a nice trail behind the pace here and 9.50 is on offer against my rating of 7.50.
Advised Bet: Esprit Rossa 0.65 units at 8.0 or better-take the 9.50 with Bet 365 (SP and Tote guarantees make it attractive to bet with them on city meetings although you can't get on for too much)
Moonee Valley
Race 2
There are two engaged here that I have in my "blackbook" Lord Da Vinci and Duke's Delight.Lord Da Vinci ran very well on debut when favourite and just outpointed.He'll improve for the extra distance but at 2.50 he's definitely short enough.Duke's Delight ran well in a maiden at Seymour that strikes me as a race likely to throw up plenty of winners.He's big overs at around 21.0 and 7.0 the place on the totes.
Advised Bet: Dukes Delight 0.45 win units at 12.0 or better and 1.15 units a place at 4.50 or better
Monitor the betting here and shop around
Race 8
Electric Fusion is on a very attractive mark of 78 for a horse who split Hawkspur and Honorius when second in the Queensland Derby.He's had two trials but he does get back and this trip is short of his best.Xavi is a definite chance but there's no real value at around 3.50.Esprit Rossa has been a steady improver and I liked her win in a weaker race last time.It's harder here but she draws for a nice trail behind the pace here and 9.50 is on offer against my rating of 7.50.
Advised Bet: Esprit Rossa 0.65 units at 8.0 or better-take the 9.50 with Bet 365 (SP and Tote guarantees make it attractive to bet with them on city meetings although you can't get on for too much)
Wednesday, 2 October 2013
Bendigo Today
Bendigo is a Dead 4 and it's mild and dry so an upgrade may be possible.It's OK racing there today certainly better than yesterday's Ballarat card which was an absolute gluepot.
I can't give you anything from early markets but there are possibilities as the markets begins to open up.Have to rely on Twitter today and as usual I'll try to get them out at least 10 mins. or so before post time
I can't give you anything from early markets but there are possibilities as the markets begins to open up.Have to rely on Twitter today and as usual I'll try to get them out at least 10 mins. or so before post time
Tuesday, 1 October 2013
Ballarat & Canterbury Today
It's a bit disappointing today for a Wednesday in Spring.Ballarat is a Heavy 9 with rain and strong winds forecast for later although the radar is clear at the moment.Canterbury is a Good 3 and it's warm and dry there.
I can't find anything I'm keen on at Canterbury and the early races at Ballarat don't appeal but I think race 7 is interesting.
Ballarat
Race 7
Handsome Tycoon ran really well on pace in a better race than this at Cranbourne last time.He was beaten less than half a length there in fourth and the winner and the fifth have won since to frank the form.The negatives are 1) yet to race on wet ground and 2) he's a 3-y-o taking on older horses although that was the case at Cranbourne last time too.He's 2.50 and that would be rock bottom on dry ground so on a Heavy 9 I think he's far too short.Caribbea started out with Mick Kent,moved to Saab Hasan and then went north to Tony Gollan in Queensland.She's back in Victoria now with the excellent and underrated Stephen Theodore.Looking through her form I'm convinced she's at her best in wet ground.She went into my "blackbook" after her last run and if anyone can squeeze the best out of her then Theodore can.7.0 with the TAB and Sportingbet looks ok against my rated price of 5.50
Advised Bet: Caribbea 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Possible bet in race 8 and if I'm playing I'll send via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
I can't find anything I'm keen on at Canterbury and the early races at Ballarat don't appeal but I think race 7 is interesting.
Ballarat
Race 7
Handsome Tycoon ran really well on pace in a better race than this at Cranbourne last time.He was beaten less than half a length there in fourth and the winner and the fifth have won since to frank the form.The negatives are 1) yet to race on wet ground and 2) he's a 3-y-o taking on older horses although that was the case at Cranbourne last time too.He's 2.50 and that would be rock bottom on dry ground so on a Heavy 9 I think he's far too short.Caribbea started out with Mick Kent,moved to Saab Hasan and then went north to Tony Gollan in Queensland.She's back in Victoria now with the excellent and underrated Stephen Theodore.Looking through her form I'm convinced she's at her best in wet ground.She went into my "blackbook" after her last run and if anyone can squeeze the best out of her then Theodore can.7.0 with the TAB and Sportingbet looks ok against my rated price of 5.50
Advised Bet: Caribbea 0.90 units at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 for 60% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Possible bet in race 8 and if I'm playing I'll send via Twitter 10/15 mins before jump time
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)