Flemington stage their Winter Finals day on a track posted a Good 3.It's generally dry and windy in Melbourne so it should be decent fast ground.Rosehill posts a slow 7 but with no rain in sight an upgrade to a Slow 6 looks likely-may even get to Dead 5.
Flemington
Race 5
Riziz is favourite here on the back of a strong win in the Gold Topaz at the Swan Hill carnival.He's won 6 from 18 starts so his wins to runs ratio is very good at 33%.Of those 18 starts 11 have been on Good and they have produced no wins.All six wins are on track with the sting out.It'll be fast here today so with quotes around 2.70 for him I think we are entitled to be looking elsewhere.
Dee Bee Nine was very good winning at Moonee Valley last time (wide run,just kept coming).13.0 is quoted which I find bewildering as I have this one at 5.50.I've gone over the figures again twice but I still have 5.50.
Advised Bet: Dee Bee Nine 0.90 units EACH WAY Centrebet are 13.0 win 3.90 place-Take it
Race 6
The Cleaner has had a change of stables since winning here a fortnight ago and is now with Robert Smerdon.Doubt that will prove to be a negative.He'll cross from out wide to lead again I expect.This race is a bit more difficult than the one he won here last time but he may get a soft lead and he'll probably be fitter.Happy to be with him again.He's on offer at 6.0 and I have him at 4.80 here
Advised Bet: The Cleaner 1.05 units to win at 5.0 or better. Take the 6.0 on offer for 40% of stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Rosehill
Race 4
Secessio had no luck last time and should have won.Hopefully the blog can recoup the losses here.
Clearly on top on my figures at 3.0 and 3.75 is available.
Advised Bet Secessio 1.65 units to win at 3.20 or better.Take the 3.75 available for 33% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Friday, 5 July 2013
Friday's UK Racing
Five meetings today.Three afternoon and two evening.A warm dry day forecast so decent Summer ground everywhere today.
My teenage Daughter was out gallivanting last weekend and returned home on Tuesday with the flu.I've been trying to keep away from her all week but it's got me and I'm starting to feel very ordinary.I've battled through the form for today but whether I can battle through the racing is dubious.
Two bets at this stage-if I can keep going there will almost certainly be "tweets" as there are a few possibles today if the market gets a little more giving.
Doncaster
Race 4
Creek Falcon failed at Ascot after bolting up over this course and distance.I backed him at Ascot and he was below his best.He's subsequently trotted up at Leicester.He's the one to beat here.I have him 3.15 and 3.80 is available
Advised Bet: Creek Falcon 1.60 units at 3.30 or better.Take the 3.80 for 65% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Beverley
Race 5
Bondi Beach Boy was too strong for Pull The Pin over course and distance less than a fortnight ago.Bondi has subsequently been beaten (actually ran very well ) at Hamilton.Pull The Pin is a bit better at the weights tonight and draws for a gun run behind a likely keen pace. Pull The Pin is 5.50 on my figures but is 8.0 with the bookies and 9.0 plus on Betfair but only small money on offer.
Advised Bet: Pull The Pin 0.90 units Each Way (4 places here if 16 or more run) at 6.0 or better.Have 65% at the 8.0 available now and monitor with the balance.
Perhaps more later via Twitter if I can battle the flu.
My teenage Daughter was out gallivanting last weekend and returned home on Tuesday with the flu.I've been trying to keep away from her all week but it's got me and I'm starting to feel very ordinary.I've battled through the form for today but whether I can battle through the racing is dubious.
Two bets at this stage-if I can keep going there will almost certainly be "tweets" as there are a few possibles today if the market gets a little more giving.
Doncaster
Race 4
Creek Falcon failed at Ascot after bolting up over this course and distance.I backed him at Ascot and he was below his best.He's subsequently trotted up at Leicester.He's the one to beat here.I have him 3.15 and 3.80 is available
Advised Bet: Creek Falcon 1.60 units at 3.30 or better.Take the 3.80 for 65% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Beverley
Race 5
Bondi Beach Boy was too strong for Pull The Pin over course and distance less than a fortnight ago.Bondi has subsequently been beaten (actually ran very well ) at Hamilton.Pull The Pin is a bit better at the weights tonight and draws for a gun run behind a likely keen pace. Pull The Pin is 5.50 on my figures but is 8.0 with the bookies and 9.0 plus on Betfair but only small money on offer.
Advised Bet: Pull The Pin 0.90 units Each Way (4 places here if 16 or more run) at 6.0 or better.Have 65% at the 8.0 available now and monitor with the balance.
Perhaps more later via Twitter if I can battle the flu.
Thursday, 4 July 2013
Thursday's UK Racing
Four meetings today and the quality is up a notch or so overall.Dry day forecast so expect good fast Summer conditions at all venues.
Nothing stands out at current odds at the moment.Looks another no bet day at this stage but if I do decide to back anything I will tweet it through.Pretty uneventful week so far.Hopefully I can find a winner or two over the weekend.
Nothing stands out at current odds at the moment.Looks another no bet day at this stage but if I do decide to back anything I will tweet it through.Pretty uneventful week so far.Hopefully I can find a winner or two over the weekend.
Wednesday, 3 July 2013
Wednesday's UK Racing
Three flat meetings today.Chepstow is poor,Catterick is worse and Kempton serves up a typical all weather evening fixture.It looks like a day for the needy and the greedy.No problem giving it a miss today.
Plenty to go at from tomorrow though
Plenty to go at from tomorrow though
Tuesday, 2 July 2013
Caulfield & Warwick Farm Today
I had a puncture early this morning which is a nightmare for me because I have no mechanical aptitude at all.After an hour of trying to fix it I had to call for help so what should have been a half hour of inconvenience turned into 2.Consequently I'm behind and frazzled as a result.
Caulfield is a Dead 5 and drying so a Dead 4 is a real possibility as the day goes on.Warwick Farm starts out a Heavy 9 and again it's dry so an upgrade is possible but it's still likely to be very holding ground.
I like a couple but haven't committed to anything yet.Will tweet through if I'm backing anything today
Caulfield is a Dead 5 and drying so a Dead 4 is a real possibility as the day goes on.Warwick Farm starts out a Heavy 9 and again it's dry so an upgrade is possible but it's still likely to be very holding ground.
I like a couple but haven't committed to anything yet.Will tweet through if I'm backing anything today
Tuesday's UK Racing
With all the quality racing loaded into the end of the week we are left with some pretty moderate stuff Monday,Tuesday and Wednesday this week.I've looked at a few today but won't be backing anything.Things pick up a bit as the week progresses.
Caulfield and Warwick Farm in Australia tomorrow so hopefully there will be some opportunities there.
Caulfield and Warwick Farm in Australia tomorrow so hopefully there will be some opportunities there.
Monday, 1 July 2013
Monday's UK Racing
There's a chance of some scattered showers today.Only light stuff though so I'm expecting decent ground at all venues.Generally a very modest bunch of horses competing.Just the one bet today and no tweets likely.
Pontefract
Race 1
Lady riders event.City Ground returned to form winning one of these lady's races at Lingfield last month.He only won narrowly but looked to be value for more to me.That was on the all weather and we are on turf today but he acts on both so no real worries there.He's on a 1lb lower mark here than when he won there which is a bit surprising but there it is.He's very well in on old form and the one they all have to beat here.Ms S Brotherton rides him again which is a very strong positive in these events.I've got him 2.70 here and 3.20 is available.
Advised Bet: City Ground 1.85 units at 2.90 or better.3.20 available now.Have 30% at 3.20 and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Pontefract
Race 1
Lady riders event.City Ground returned to form winning one of these lady's races at Lingfield last month.He only won narrowly but looked to be value for more to me.That was on the all weather and we are on turf today but he acts on both so no real worries there.He's on a 1lb lower mark here than when he won there which is a bit surprising but there it is.He's very well in on old form and the one they all have to beat here.Ms S Brotherton rides him again which is a very strong positive in these events.I've got him 2.70 here and 3.20 is available.
Advised Bet: City Ground 1.85 units at 2.90 or better.3.20 available now.Have 30% at 3.20 and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)