Decent cards today with plenty of interesting runners.
Asian Trader made heavy weather of getting the money yesterday but a winner is very welcome.
I don't often advise horses at short quotes but have to go full bore this afternoon.
Newmarket
Race 5
Maputo has been demolishing the opposition"Up North"and takes on some decent sorts at Headquarters.He's rated 88 but my figures have him just shy of 100 with more to come.He's evens and should be 1.60.Leads,kicks on and very,very hard to pass
Advised bet Newmarket Race 5 Maputo 3 units to win at 1.75 or better.Take the 2.00
Maybe more later via twitter particularly covering the evening fixtures at Haydock and Pontefract
Friday, 7 June 2013
Thursday, 6 June 2013
Thurday's UK Racing
I don't know what's happened to the replays on the Racing Post site.None are available for either Tuesday's or yesterday's racing which is a real pain.I set aside a couple of hours every day to review the previous day's racing and I hate to get behind as 2/3 hours a day of analysing replays is about as much as I can stand before my brain starts going into neutral.
It's piss poor racing this week so far which I suppose after Epsom and two weeks out from Ascot is predictable.
Only one bet I can suggest
Sandown
Race 2
I'm not that keen on Bath winners stepping up to premier courses but I'll make an exception for Asian Trader here.He looked an out and out sprinter winning his maiden last time and from a good draw and slightly down in trip he'll be hard to beat.Rebecca Romero was unlucky last time and if the breaks fall her way she is a live threat but she will need luck and plenty of it the way she races.
Advised Bet
Asian Trader 1.55 units to win at 3.50 or better (some 4.0 on offer but generally 3.75 early)
It's piss poor racing this week so far which I suppose after Epsom and two weeks out from Ascot is predictable.
Only one bet I can suggest
Sandown
Race 2
I'm not that keen on Bath winners stepping up to premier courses but I'll make an exception for Asian Trader here.He looked an out and out sprinter winning his maiden last time and from a good draw and slightly down in trip he'll be hard to beat.Rebecca Romero was unlucky last time and if the breaks fall her way she is a live threat but she will need luck and plenty of it the way she races.
Advised Bet
Asian Trader 1.55 units to win at 3.50 or better (some 4.0 on offer but generally 3.75 early)
Wednesday, 5 June 2013
Wednesday's Uk Racing
Very uninspiring stuff on offer today.I can't find anything to enthuse about so I've decided to give it a miss.Back tomorrow.
Tuesday, 4 June 2013
Moonee Valley Today
Racing returns to the Valley after a two month absence.It's posted a Slow 6 but with a dry 16 degree day forecast it could end up Dead.The races that I managed to get a reasonable handle on are very ground dependent so making an early call is pointless.As always at this venue whatever the track conditions the possibility of bias is very real.Many of the races have no early prices and it's 10.15am as I type this so the bookies are not keen to show their hand early either.
The earlier races are devilishly tricky and it's races 7 onwards (10 races here today) that hold most interest for me.
All I can tell you with any confidence at this stage is that Lake Sentensia is too short at 2.50 in race 8.
Sorry there's nothing to put up at this stage but I will tweet through later
The earlier races are devilishly tricky and it's races 7 onwards (10 races here today) that hold most interest for me.
All I can tell you with any confidence at this stage is that Lake Sentensia is too short at 2.50 in race 8.
Sorry there's nothing to put up at this stage but I will tweet through later
Weekend Round Up
The first four classics are over now but it seems that the UK season has only just started to get into full swing.
The introduction of all year round flat racing with the all weather now a constant has disrupted the pattern and I think it makes the early part of the traditional (turf) season much more erratic.
My memory may be playing tricks on me but 20 years ago at this point in the season I'd generally have pretty clearly defined opinions about the classic crop of 3-y-olds and their relative pecking order.Now it takes longer into the season for a clearer picture to emerge.
Nothing stays the same I know and I'm not saying things are better or worse but I don't think the Pattern race schedule is working quite as well as it used to.
That said I couldn't knock Ruler Of The World and doubt any that finished behind him are likely to end up being rated superior with exception of Dawn Approach.What an anti climax his effort was with his chances almost zero after the first furlong.Maybe he needs a break.
This blog and it's author is due a change of luck.Had Smoothtalkinrascal not received a side on swipe leaving the stalls he surely would have landed the money on Saturday.I couldn't believe that he was 20.0 plus on Betfair early on and he joins a long list this year of juicily priced horses who have gone down narrowly or unluckily when I've been on.
I was very confident about Renew so it was total frustration when he played up in the stalls and was scratched at the start.
Last night I tweeted through Tropics who got out to 4.7 on Betfair before being backed into 3.6.Traded very short on Betfair after looking home but run down in the shadow of the post-arghhh!
Nothing appeals today so I'll be resting up.
Back tomorrow fighting fit.
The introduction of all year round flat racing with the all weather now a constant has disrupted the pattern and I think it makes the early part of the traditional (turf) season much more erratic.
My memory may be playing tricks on me but 20 years ago at this point in the season I'd generally have pretty clearly defined opinions about the classic crop of 3-y-olds and their relative pecking order.Now it takes longer into the season for a clearer picture to emerge.
Nothing stays the same I know and I'm not saying things are better or worse but I don't think the Pattern race schedule is working quite as well as it used to.
That said I couldn't knock Ruler Of The World and doubt any that finished behind him are likely to end up being rated superior with exception of Dawn Approach.What an anti climax his effort was with his chances almost zero after the first furlong.Maybe he needs a break.
This blog and it's author is due a change of luck.Had Smoothtalkinrascal not received a side on swipe leaving the stalls he surely would have landed the money on Saturday.I couldn't believe that he was 20.0 plus on Betfair early on and he joins a long list this year of juicily priced horses who have gone down narrowly or unluckily when I've been on.
I was very confident about Renew so it was total frustration when he played up in the stalls and was scratched at the start.
Last night I tweeted through Tropics who got out to 4.7 on Betfair before being backed into 3.6.Traded very short on Betfair after looking home but run down in the shadow of the post-arghhh!
Nothing appeals today so I'll be resting up.
Back tomorrow fighting fit.
Monday, 3 June 2013
Monday's UK Racing
I'll do a weekend roundup tomorrow.
A few of interest today but nothing I'm committed to at this stage so no advised bets.
I'll be concentrating on the evening fixtures at Carlisle and Windsor and if anything is worth noting I'll tweet it through.
A few of interest today but nothing I'm committed to at this stage so no advised bets.
I'll be concentrating on the evening fixtures at Carlisle and Windsor and if anything is worth noting I'll tweet it through.
Saturday, 1 June 2013
Derby Day
A drying day at Epsom and it should be Good ground by the time racing gets under way.
The Derby
Dawn Approach surely wins if he gets the trip.It's a big if though and the earlier ante post red quotes are now extending out to a reasonable 2.75 and he may touch 3.0.I was very strong on stamina credentials for this race until a few years ago and it used to be the first thing I wanted to be sure of when evaluating the race.There always used to be a fair few runners- many making up the numbers to give their owners the prestige of having a runner.That used to virtually guarantee a strong pace early up the hill so any stamina doubts were usually cruelly exposed.Often of late they don't go very hard at all early even with supposed pacemakers so if they dawdle up the hill it's not anything like as demanding.You'd think the Coolmore team would be determined to draw the sting out of the favourite though by ensuring a strong pace.That ought to be the plan as I think it was when they were mob handed against Sea The Stars but it didn't happen as planned then and maybe won't today.I had slight doubts about Sea The Stars staying but couldn't resist backing him at 3.0 plus on the day and I'm almost talking myself into backing Dawn Approach as the odds lengthen.
The Dash
Normally I'd avoid this race like the plague but I'm having a bet this year.
I put Smoothtalkinrascal up on the blog early last month and he was turned over but with excuses.I was in hospital when he won at York but had a bit on just in case but obviously not enough.I know he's a 3-y-o against his elders but he's a smart operator in the making and there's no way I'm passing him up here at around 20.0 on Betfair.
Musselburgh
Edinburgh Cup
This is a really cracking 3-y-o h'cap.You can make a case for a few here but I'm very keen that Renew will be hard to beat.The race he was second in at Newmarket last time was super strong and he was a clear second best.The winner there,Brass Ring has Ebor /Melboune cup claims already in my book so highly do I rate the form.We'll go each way here as I'm sure Renew will place and there are some decent types who could improve a rung or two.
Advised Bets
Epsom
Race 4
Smoothtalkinrascal 0.45 units to win.Around 20.0 on Betfair now and that looks pretty good to me.
Anything over 13.0 looks value
Musselburgh
Race 4
Renew 1.35units EW.6.0 on offer now and anything over 4.0 looks appealing to me.
The Derby
Dawn Approach surely wins if he gets the trip.It's a big if though and the earlier ante post red quotes are now extending out to a reasonable 2.75 and he may touch 3.0.I was very strong on stamina credentials for this race until a few years ago and it used to be the first thing I wanted to be sure of when evaluating the race.There always used to be a fair few runners- many making up the numbers to give their owners the prestige of having a runner.That used to virtually guarantee a strong pace early up the hill so any stamina doubts were usually cruelly exposed.Often of late they don't go very hard at all early even with supposed pacemakers so if they dawdle up the hill it's not anything like as demanding.You'd think the Coolmore team would be determined to draw the sting out of the favourite though by ensuring a strong pace.That ought to be the plan as I think it was when they were mob handed against Sea The Stars but it didn't happen as planned then and maybe won't today.I had slight doubts about Sea The Stars staying but couldn't resist backing him at 3.0 plus on the day and I'm almost talking myself into backing Dawn Approach as the odds lengthen.
The Dash
Normally I'd avoid this race like the plague but I'm having a bet this year.
I put Smoothtalkinrascal up on the blog early last month and he was turned over but with excuses.I was in hospital when he won at York but had a bit on just in case but obviously not enough.I know he's a 3-y-o against his elders but he's a smart operator in the making and there's no way I'm passing him up here at around 20.0 on Betfair.
Musselburgh
Edinburgh Cup
This is a really cracking 3-y-o h'cap.You can make a case for a few here but I'm very keen that Renew will be hard to beat.The race he was second in at Newmarket last time was super strong and he was a clear second best.The winner there,Brass Ring has Ebor /Melboune cup claims already in my book so highly do I rate the form.We'll go each way here as I'm sure Renew will place and there are some decent types who could improve a rung or two.
Advised Bets
Epsom
Race 4
Smoothtalkinrascal 0.45 units to win.Around 20.0 on Betfair now and that looks pretty good to me.
Anything over 13.0 looks value
Musselburgh
Race 4
Renew 1.35units EW.6.0 on offer now and anything over 4.0 looks appealing to me.
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