Fantastic racing at Rosehill today with three group one's two of them top class and ultra competitive and a great supporting card.The track is rated a Dead 4 but with a forecast of 29 degrees expect an upgrade.There are some thundery showers dotted around on the radar so it may go to Good 3 but possible revert to Dead if they cop a heavy shower.
Caulfield is a Dead 4 but will upgrade to a Good 3 and again there is a possibility of later rain so it's possible that they too could finish up back on Dead.
Rosehill
Race 6
Silent Achiever is the one to beat here.She will clearly be improved for her recent run and this trip will see her improve a fair bit on what she achieved there.Fiveandahalfstar is a leading contender but with the ATC Derby his main objective he may just fall short of what's required today.Manighar was very plain last time and whilst it's too early to write him off you simply have to pass on him today.Hard to really enthuse about anything else as a winning hope.I have Silent Achiever at 3.30 against a top quote of 3.85.Shop around a bit here as bookies will be betting to very tight figures today.I haven't backed her yet I'm hoping to get 4.0 at some stage.
Race 7
With early markets around 120% it's clearly best to be looking to shop on Betfair here.Streama,Red Tracer and Pear Tart are not going as well as they have in previous preps.Steps In time has beaten them but not sure that form is quite as strong as it may read.Appearance is 10 points higher than when winning the Myer and doubt she's good enough of this mark.Dear Demi's mark is as a result of her form over further.She's on the same mark as Norzita who towelled her in the Flight Stakes and is the filly with overall the strongest form around this trip.Trained by Cummings she may have just needed the race when run down by Flying Snitzel last time.She's top pick.Star Of Giselle is a real hope.She's been steadily progressive and is very fairly weighted.She looked sure to win last time but was run down close home again giving the impression she could be made fitter.I cannot dismiss Benetta as the stable's "modus operandi" is usually to have them a tad soft the run prior to the big day.Flying Snitzel really did eat up the ground last time and it's possible being ridden for the last crack really did improve her many lengths.It should be possible to back all four of these and collectively get around 2.25 which may look very short but I have these four collectively taking up 55% of the market.
Caulfield
Race 4
Three main chances here are Under The Eiffel (good winning in Tassie but had the run of the race and seemed to improve a bit on wet ground),British General (ran very well again last time and has really improved this prep but, has a tricky gate and has had a hard prep) and Dubawi Gold ( very strong winning the Echuca Cup last after working a bit on speed)Of the three I much prefer Dubawi Gold who has gate 1 and hopefully will hold the rail.Young Sadler takes off 3kg's which he didn't at Echuca as it was no claims race so he's in here off 51.5kg's.I have him favourite here at 3.50 but 5.00 is available.
Race 6
Many chances here but one that makes plenty of appeal at odds is Honey Flower.She improved big time last prep and finished off winning at the Flemington carnival.11.0 on offer against my rating of 7.00
Advised Bets
Rosehill Race 6 Silent Achiever 1.50 units to win at 3.50 or better-shop around
Race 7 Norzita 1 unit to win look for 7.0 plus
Benetta 0.70 to win look for 7.50 plus
Flying Snitzel 0.60 to win look for 9.50 plus
Star Of Giselle 0.45 to win look for 20.0 plus
Caulfield Race 4 Dubawi Gold 1.40 to win at 4.0 or better
Race 6 Honey Flower 0.70 to win at 7.50 or better
Friday, 22 March 2013
Thursday, 21 March 2013
Black Caviar Night at Moonee Valley
The great sprinting mare makes what may be her final Victorian appearance at Moonee Valley tonight.Hopefully she continues her amazing record.
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 but expect an early upgrade to a Good 3
Only one race that appeals with early value tonight:-
Race 1
Rambert was very dominant leading from the front here last time and steps up to 3000m tonight.A real chance obviously but 2.60 is too short for me.As live a chance on my figures is You Think So who races very well here and has developed into a really useful stayer.Gotta Take Care is the other live contender here.
My figures are Rambert 3.20,You Think So 3.20.Gotta Take Care 6.0,Aggregator 10.0
Advised Bet Moonee Valley Race 1 You Think So 1.55 units to win at 3.50 or better
4.40 on offer now which I have taken
Moonee Valley is a Dead 4 but expect an early upgrade to a Good 3
Only one race that appeals with early value tonight:-
Race 1
Rambert was very dominant leading from the front here last time and steps up to 3000m tonight.A real chance obviously but 2.60 is too short for me.As live a chance on my figures is You Think So who races very well here and has developed into a really useful stayer.Gotta Take Care is the other live contender here.
My figures are Rambert 3.20,You Think So 3.20.Gotta Take Care 6.0,Aggregator 10.0
Advised Bet Moonee Valley Race 1 You Think So 1.55 units to win at 3.50 or better
4.40 on offer now which I have taken
Early Post-Albury Cup Day
Two posts today an early one looking at Albury's cup meeting and a later one for Moonee Valley tonight.
Albury is listed a Heavy 8 but the rain has gone and the radar is clear.24 degree day forecast and no rain due till this evening so expect the track to dry out a bit.I've worked on Slow but it's an informed guess.
Race 5
Highest rated horse here is Road Trippin on 70 who isn't hopeless but has to concede 5kg's to some unexposed sorts and has a wide gate to overcome.Berkshire is favourite but looks too short to me around 4.00.Crusader General is progressive and handles wet ground.Clearwater Bay has a recent second in Sydney and Gladius won her first two starts before failing when favourite at Flemington.All of these are possibles but the one I'm interested in at odds is the John Ledger trained Secret Toy Buziness (odd name for a horse isn't it?).This filly can produce a power packed finish and her two wins at this distance last prep were very impressive albeit against modest horses.She was due to reappear on Wangaratta Cup day and was well backed for that race but was scratched at the barrier.She turned up as favourite at Echuca last time but was a big drifter that day.Her run there is best described as "never placed to challenge".Wet ground is an unknown so have to hope there.The evergreen R.Thompson travels down to ride three here today including this one.13.00 on offer at the TAB against my rated price of 7.50 looks attractive.
Advised Bet Albury Race 5 Secret Toy Bizness 0.65 units to win at 7.0 or better
Take the 13.00 on offer at the TAB
Coliseo looks hard to beat in the Cup if he handles the ground but there is no conclusive evidence that he will so 3.50 is hardly tempting.struggling to find one to oppose him with though.
Albury is listed a Heavy 8 but the rain has gone and the radar is clear.24 degree day forecast and no rain due till this evening so expect the track to dry out a bit.I've worked on Slow but it's an informed guess.
Race 5
Highest rated horse here is Road Trippin on 70 who isn't hopeless but has to concede 5kg's to some unexposed sorts and has a wide gate to overcome.Berkshire is favourite but looks too short to me around 4.00.Crusader General is progressive and handles wet ground.Clearwater Bay has a recent second in Sydney and Gladius won her first two starts before failing when favourite at Flemington.All of these are possibles but the one I'm interested in at odds is the John Ledger trained Secret Toy Buziness (odd name for a horse isn't it?).This filly can produce a power packed finish and her two wins at this distance last prep were very impressive albeit against modest horses.She was due to reappear on Wangaratta Cup day and was well backed for that race but was scratched at the barrier.She turned up as favourite at Echuca last time but was a big drifter that day.Her run there is best described as "never placed to challenge".Wet ground is an unknown so have to hope there.The evergreen R.Thompson travels down to ride three here today including this one.13.00 on offer at the TAB against my rated price of 7.50 looks attractive.
Advised Bet Albury Race 5 Secret Toy Bizness 0.65 units to win at 7.0 or better
Take the 13.00 on offer at the TAB
Coliseo looks hard to beat in the Cup if he handles the ground but there is no conclusive evidence that he will so 3.50 is hardly tempting.struggling to find one to oppose him with though.
Tuesday, 19 March 2013
Sandown & Newcastle Today
Midweek metro meeting at Sandown and Newmarket Handicap day at Newcastle.Sandown is a Dead 4 but will quickly upgrade to a Good 3 and Newcastle is already a Good 3 and it's fair to expect fast ground at both venues.
The lavish prize money distributed across the board in Australian racing is largely collected from us the punters.As a fair trade off you'd think it not unreasonable that on a midweek metro meeting we should be provided with a card of racing that if not of the quality of a Saturday is at least conducive to having a bet.Sandown today starts with a four runner steeplechase with the odds on favourite rated 60 on his flat form.This is followed by a 3 runner hurdle,followed by a 2-y-o fillies event with eight runners six of which are unraced and untrialled.Collectively these three races have prize money of $105,000 plus starter subsidies and Vobis bonuses.This is what happens when you have incompetent people spending other peoples money.The racing authorities want to collect even more money from us (punters) in order to continue and increase this idiocy.A lot of this nonsense that is being rammed down our throats wouldn't have been possible were it not for the insane policies of the current Victorian racing minister and now newly elected Premier Denis Napthine.Just remember who's paying for all this the next time they increase the turnover levy.
Sandown
Race 5
Scarletini is very well in here if she can run out the 2400m trip.Her 1533m win last time was very solid and she's been raised 5 points for it which is far from excessive.She races here of 69 yet gets 6kg's (12 points) from the top rated horse on a mark of 70.when you add on young Sadler's 3kg's claim she is thrown in.Will she stay?Maybe 70 to 75% likely.She's going to be leading here I think as there is no other obvious pace apart from Lord Of The Song who has led over hurdles.Going Good is a promising stayer and the extra trip will help him.I think there are only three of interest here.No advised but but my figures are:-
Scarletini 2.40,Going Good 4.0, Lord Of The Song 7.50 15.0 plus others
Race 6
Not a lot of pace here which means the ones who are up front should be advantaged.Catagious should lead and if he can stay 1400m will be a tough nut to crack.The 1400m is a big IF though.Maussane gets a good run just behind the speed and gets out to a trip that should suit him.Irish Fire has to try to cross from out wide but does risk being posted doing so but is a live hope if he gets the luck.Van Rossum is racing well and gets a good run but this is a tad harder than last time I think. Savitar and Aurum Spirit have to hope for speed and both look unders on early prices.No advised bet but thinking about backing Maussane.
Race 7
Lack of pace again here Mega Rich leads from gate 1 and should get a dolly run in front.This is harder than last time but the speed map convinces me that he's a serious player here.Red Rain is the obvious after his excellent effort in a good race at Moonee Valley last time.The problem is the 1400m and the fact he'll be in the second half of the field.Speckie is a horse with more to offer but first up from the outside gate I expect will go back and hope.Sharalam is ex Irish and his maiden win over there isn't good enough form to win this although he'll be a better proposition over further.Cooldini probably needs further and Host Of The Party get's back in his races.Mega Rich at 8.59/9.0 looks overs -I have him at 6.0.
Newcastle
Race 8
26 days between runs is a slight concern but City Of Light should be very hard to beat here.Rawiller will want the front on him and unless Avdulla on Mantonant is determined to hold the rail he should get it.Either way doubt they'll go hard.City of Light finds his race today providing he's fit and firing.I've taken the 3.50 on offer against my rating of 2.70.Youthful King is the one I fear most but he be giving away a start.
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 7 Mega Rich 0.83 units to win at 6.50 or better ( take the 8.50 plus now)
Newcastle Race 8 City Of Light 1.85 units to win at 2.90 or better (take the 3.50 now)
The lavish prize money distributed across the board in Australian racing is largely collected from us the punters.As a fair trade off you'd think it not unreasonable that on a midweek metro meeting we should be provided with a card of racing that if not of the quality of a Saturday is at least conducive to having a bet.Sandown today starts with a four runner steeplechase with the odds on favourite rated 60 on his flat form.This is followed by a 3 runner hurdle,followed by a 2-y-o fillies event with eight runners six of which are unraced and untrialled.Collectively these three races have prize money of $105,000 plus starter subsidies and Vobis bonuses.This is what happens when you have incompetent people spending other peoples money.The racing authorities want to collect even more money from us (punters) in order to continue and increase this idiocy.A lot of this nonsense that is being rammed down our throats wouldn't have been possible were it not for the insane policies of the current Victorian racing minister and now newly elected Premier Denis Napthine.Just remember who's paying for all this the next time they increase the turnover levy.
Sandown
Race 5
Scarletini is very well in here if she can run out the 2400m trip.Her 1533m win last time was very solid and she's been raised 5 points for it which is far from excessive.She races here of 69 yet gets 6kg's (12 points) from the top rated horse on a mark of 70.when you add on young Sadler's 3kg's claim she is thrown in.Will she stay?Maybe 70 to 75% likely.She's going to be leading here I think as there is no other obvious pace apart from Lord Of The Song who has led over hurdles.Going Good is a promising stayer and the extra trip will help him.I think there are only three of interest here.No advised but but my figures are:-
Scarletini 2.40,Going Good 4.0, Lord Of The Song 7.50 15.0 plus others
Race 6
Not a lot of pace here which means the ones who are up front should be advantaged.Catagious should lead and if he can stay 1400m will be a tough nut to crack.The 1400m is a big IF though.Maussane gets a good run just behind the speed and gets out to a trip that should suit him.Irish Fire has to try to cross from out wide but does risk being posted doing so but is a live hope if he gets the luck.Van Rossum is racing well and gets a good run but this is a tad harder than last time I think. Savitar and Aurum Spirit have to hope for speed and both look unders on early prices.No advised bet but thinking about backing Maussane.
Race 7
Lack of pace again here Mega Rich leads from gate 1 and should get a dolly run in front.This is harder than last time but the speed map convinces me that he's a serious player here.Red Rain is the obvious after his excellent effort in a good race at Moonee Valley last time.The problem is the 1400m and the fact he'll be in the second half of the field.Speckie is a horse with more to offer but first up from the outside gate I expect will go back and hope.Sharalam is ex Irish and his maiden win over there isn't good enough form to win this although he'll be a better proposition over further.Cooldini probably needs further and Host Of The Party get's back in his races.Mega Rich at 8.59/9.0 looks overs -I have him at 6.0.
Newcastle
Race 8
26 days between runs is a slight concern but City Of Light should be very hard to beat here.Rawiller will want the front on him and unless Avdulla on Mantonant is determined to hold the rail he should get it.Either way doubt they'll go hard.City of Light finds his race today providing he's fit and firing.I've taken the 3.50 on offer against my rating of 2.70.Youthful King is the one I fear most but he be giving away a start.
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 7 Mega Rich 0.83 units to win at 6.50 or better ( take the 8.50 plus now)
Newcastle Race 8 City Of Light 1.85 units to win at 2.90 or better (take the 3.50 now)
Weekend Round Up
Only two selection posted on the blog last week and unfortunately no joy with either.It's been a very tough month indeed.
I don't post a blog generally on Sundays but I did "tweet" that I had Sutanoc odds on in a race at Ararat and that he was available at 2.90 with Luxbet.Amazingly he was 3.0 elsewhere which I got some of and the 2.90 with Luxbet held up for a few minutes after my tweet.He won easily backed into around evens which I would have been happy to take initially.That win rescued the week personally for me and put me a decent margin in front but the month overall has been a shocker.
Back tomorrow with a look at Wednesday's racing
I don't post a blog generally on Sundays but I did "tweet" that I had Sutanoc odds on in a race at Ararat and that he was available at 2.90 with Luxbet.Amazingly he was 3.0 elsewhere which I got some of and the 2.90 with Luxbet held up for a few minutes after my tweet.He won easily backed into around evens which I would have been happy to take initially.That win rescued the week personally for me and put me a decent margin in front but the month overall has been a shocker.
Back tomorrow with a look at Wednesday's racing
Friday, 15 March 2013
Guineas Day at Warwick Farm and Bendigo
Warwick Farm the showcase meeting today with the Guineas the highlight along with the reappearance of Hay List in the Challenge Stakes.Bendigo stages it's only Saturday fixture of the year and a very competitive card it is too.
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 with a dry day forecast so expect fast ground.Bendigo is a Dead 4 with showers around so probably reasonable to expect Dead ground there today.
Tough finding early value and only one bet today in the Guineas.
Warwick Farm
Race 6
A few hopes here but I'm not interested in the shorter quotes here.Tougher Than Ever ran a huge race last time and the fact that Waller has trialled him since suggests that he didn't think he was fully would up for that run.He doesn't have to find very much improvement to be winning here and 11.0 is way over my figure of 6.50.Sure this one will run really well here today
Advised Bet Warwick Farm Race 6 Tougher Than Ever 0.80 to win at 7.0 or better
Take the 11.0 on offer now
Warwick Farm is a Good 3 with a dry day forecast so expect fast ground.Bendigo is a Dead 4 with showers around so probably reasonable to expect Dead ground there today.
Tough finding early value and only one bet today in the Guineas.
Warwick Farm
Race 6
A few hopes here but I'm not interested in the shorter quotes here.Tougher Than Ever ran a huge race last time and the fact that Waller has trialled him since suggests that he didn't think he was fully would up for that run.He doesn't have to find very much improvement to be winning here and 11.0 is way over my figure of 6.50.Sure this one will run really well here today
Advised Bet Warwick Farm Race 6 Tougher Than Ever 0.80 to win at 7.0 or better
Take the 11.0 on offer now
Moonee Valley Tonight
Very good programme at Moonee Valley tonight.Track is rated a Dead 4 but with drying conditions an early upgrade looks certain.Expect fast ground.
Race 4
If Sumakaray is in the same form as when she won here over Christmas she is clearly the one to beat.I was super confident about her last time and the early market moves were for her.Once the on course betting began the bookies were falling over themselves to lay her and she ran miserably.She had a slow recovery rate after that race so maybe there was an explanation for the poor run then.She's on offer around 4.80 tonight which looks very attractive if she's capable of running to her best.I've got her rated 3.0 but really want to see some market confidence before stepping in.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 4 Sumakaray 1.65 units to win at 3.30 or better.
I've listed her as an advised bet but suggest you monitor the market to guard against a chronic market drift like last time.
I'll "tweet" updates that I think are worthwhile throughout the evening
Race 4
If Sumakaray is in the same form as when she won here over Christmas she is clearly the one to beat.I was super confident about her last time and the early market moves were for her.Once the on course betting began the bookies were falling over themselves to lay her and she ran miserably.She had a slow recovery rate after that race so maybe there was an explanation for the poor run then.She's on offer around 4.80 tonight which looks very attractive if she's capable of running to her best.I've got her rated 3.0 but really want to see some market confidence before stepping in.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 4 Sumakaray 1.65 units to win at 3.30 or better.
I've listed her as an advised bet but suggest you monitor the market to guard against a chronic market drift like last time.
I'll "tweet" updates that I think are worthwhile throughout the evening
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