Evening meeting at Moonee Valley and the track has already been upgraded to a Good 3.
I've held back this post waiting for all the races to be priced up but with just over an hour to go to the start of racing four of the eight races are still not priced up by any of the major bookies.
I'm looking at two races here tonight.
Race 5
I think Paaratte Pat is clearly the horse to beat here tonight.Last time around here he was given a most unsatisfactory ride and J.Mott is replaced by the good apprentice J Kissick (claims the 3kg's) this evening.He should hold the fence here and with the weights in his favour he looks very hard to beat.2.70 is the general quote which is close to my rating of 2.65 so I need a bit better to get involved here.2.90 plus will be ok and if you shop on Betfair around 25/20 minutes before post time I think you'll get that.
Race 7
Anlon looked good winning last time and he's a live hope but everything panned out really well for him last time and tonight he has sterner opposition and a tough gate to deal with.Xavi makes plenty of appeal at first glance.This race is easier than the one he ran second in when resuming.I'm just concerned about him being 3 weeks between runs and stepping up over 300m in trip.He's been a bit easy in early markets out from 3.50 to 3.80.I've got him rated 3.25 here but that's assuming he's fit and ready to go.I won't put this one up as an advised bet but I'll be backing him if the market doesn't argue emphatically against him but that early drift has me very wary
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Paaratte Pat 1.85 units to win at 2.90 plus (monitor Betfair and try to shop at 2.90 plus)
Thursday, 14 February 2013
Tuesday, 12 February 2013
Cup Day At Mornington & Canterbury
Cup day down at Mornington and a very competitive 10 race programme there.Track is rated a Dead 4 but with no rain around and a forecast in the high 20's expect good fast Summer ground.Canterbury is listed as a Slow 7 and there is a bit of coastal drizzle around Sydney this morning but it doesn't amount to much.Canterbury is a very quick drying track so it will be no surprise to see a quick upgrade-if there is no rain at all it'll probably be in the Dead range by mid-afternoon.
The Mornington programme is extremely tough and I've found this to be a very unprofitable day over the years.All the races bar the Inglis 2-y-o race which looks a match between Twilight Royale and Resistant are very hard and I'll be doing more laying than backing there today.Hopefully I'll do better than I did yesterday where I layed 4 horses 3 of which were winners.Only one bet at Mornington and it's in the cup
Mornington
Race 8
Plenty of sound hopes in the Mornington Cup this year.The two big improvers are Durnford (up a massive 27 points for winning last time) who will relish the extra distance and Award Season who demolished a midweek field at Canterbury last time and who will also be much better suited out to this longer trip.Both can win but do have to improve a lot again to do so and whilst they can they currently account for almost 40% of the market and I think that is too much.At 13/14.0 Travolta appeals as good value.He's a steady improver,can get a good run from a nice gate and is a thorough stayer at this trip.I have him at 9.0 in a tough race so I'm happy to have a small bet at the current quote.
Canterbury is thin on races that appeal but I am keen on one here.Plus a look at race an earlier race.
Race 4
Three hopes here.On a line through Zedlion there isn't much between So Symbolic and Burberro.Both are lightly races improvers,are proven at the trip,can handle cut in the ground and swap senior riders for claimers today.Can't really split them.Disciple was a month between runs last time and was ultra weak in betting and ran poorly.If and it is an if, he's fit enough to produce his best he rates just about as sound a chance as the other two mentioned.If he was solid in betting I could possibly be interested in him at around 4.50
Race 5
Ninth Legion has contested group races in all of his last 5 starts (2 of them in G 1's).Here he is resuming in a midweek BM75 with a claimer on board.If you thought initial quotes around 4.0 looked inviting then think again because he's on the slide.Maybe he'll rally in later betting but early signals suggest he's not as good now as he was then.I like Zin Zan Eddie here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o coming of a solid win in Saturday grade last time.He can position handy here as most of these settle back.His debut run was on slow and he was a good third that day so any cut in the track is unlikely to be a negative.Best priced 3.90 against my rating of 3.40
Advised Bets
Mornington Race 8 Travolta 0.55 units to win at 10.00 or better ( 14.0 is available now)
Canterbury Race 5 Zin Zan Eddie 1.45 units to win at 3.50 or better (take the 3.90 now)
The Mornington programme is extremely tough and I've found this to be a very unprofitable day over the years.All the races bar the Inglis 2-y-o race which looks a match between Twilight Royale and Resistant are very hard and I'll be doing more laying than backing there today.Hopefully I'll do better than I did yesterday where I layed 4 horses 3 of which were winners.Only one bet at Mornington and it's in the cup
Mornington
Race 8
Plenty of sound hopes in the Mornington Cup this year.The two big improvers are Durnford (up a massive 27 points for winning last time) who will relish the extra distance and Award Season who demolished a midweek field at Canterbury last time and who will also be much better suited out to this longer trip.Both can win but do have to improve a lot again to do so and whilst they can they currently account for almost 40% of the market and I think that is too much.At 13/14.0 Travolta appeals as good value.He's a steady improver,can get a good run from a nice gate and is a thorough stayer at this trip.I have him at 9.0 in a tough race so I'm happy to have a small bet at the current quote.
Canterbury is thin on races that appeal but I am keen on one here.Plus a look at race an earlier race.
Race 4
Three hopes here.On a line through Zedlion there isn't much between So Symbolic and Burberro.Both are lightly races improvers,are proven at the trip,can handle cut in the ground and swap senior riders for claimers today.Can't really split them.Disciple was a month between runs last time and was ultra weak in betting and ran poorly.If and it is an if, he's fit enough to produce his best he rates just about as sound a chance as the other two mentioned.If he was solid in betting I could possibly be interested in him at around 4.50
Race 5
Ninth Legion has contested group races in all of his last 5 starts (2 of them in G 1's).Here he is resuming in a midweek BM75 with a claimer on board.If you thought initial quotes around 4.0 looked inviting then think again because he's on the slide.Maybe he'll rally in later betting but early signals suggest he's not as good now as he was then.I like Zin Zan Eddie here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o coming of a solid win in Saturday grade last time.He can position handy here as most of these settle back.His debut run was on slow and he was a good third that day so any cut in the track is unlikely to be a negative.Best priced 3.90 against my rating of 3.40
Advised Bets
Mornington Race 8 Travolta 0.55 units to win at 10.00 or better ( 14.0 is available now)
Canterbury Race 5 Zin Zan Eddie 1.45 units to win at 3.50 or better (take the 3.90 now)
Monday, 11 February 2013
Weekend Round Up
My Monday's are spent reviewing both the weekend's racing and all the back and lay bets I've had.If you've been following the blog you'll know that Friday and Saturday's selections performed miserably and as a result the blog is behind on the advised bets this month.All previous month's have been profitable but there is a bit of work to be done to get ahead this month.
On reflection I have to concede that I got it wrong on Saturday.I have strict parameters that I generally stick to when taking early odds (and including as advised bets in the blog).On Saturday I bent the rules and strayed outside those parameters and got my arse kicked as a result.If you followed the blog with your "hard earned"on Saturday all I can tell you is that being human I'm prone to the occasional off day but they are hopefully,these days, the exception and not the rule.As my school report card repeatedly used to say "can and must do better".
Back Wednesday with a look at Mornington's cup meeting and Sydney's Canterbury card.
On reflection I have to concede that I got it wrong on Saturday.I have strict parameters that I generally stick to when taking early odds (and including as advised bets in the blog).On Saturday I bent the rules and strayed outside those parameters and got my arse kicked as a result.If you followed the blog with your "hard earned"on Saturday all I can tell you is that being human I'm prone to the occasional off day but they are hopefully,these days, the exception and not the rule.As my school report card repeatedly used to say "can and must do better".
Back Wednesday with a look at Mornington's cup meeting and Sydney's Canterbury card.
Friday, 8 February 2013
C.F. Orr Stakes Day at Caulfield plus Warwick Farm
After the Summer drought G1 racing returns today with the running of the C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield.Hot weather for both Caulfield and Warwick Farm today so expect the Caulfield track to be upgraded from a Dead 4 to a Good 3.Just be aware that thundery showers are a possibilty at Warwick Farm this afternoon.It would have to sluice down to alter the Good 3 rating there but as Autumn approaches torrential rain is always a real possibilty in Sydney.
Caulfield
Race 2
Very keen on Sumakaray here.She was terrific winning over Christmas at Moonee Valley when wide throughout.Second there Avoid Lightning franked the form in Listed grade last week.She won't be wide today and can be right on pace from gate 2.She's back against her own age group here and although she is favourite she still is great value at 2.90.I have her a 2.35 chance here.
Warwick Farm
Race 3
Two relatively unexposed horses here against a field of horses who have generally peaked perfomance wise namely, Laser Flash and Pendolin.Laser Flash doesn't have much turn of foot and the stretch out to 2200mshould suit him providing he's fit enough second up.There has been some money for him so I'll take his fitness on trust here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o off bottom weight here and surely there is better to come from him.Gets a nice run just behind the speed here from gate 4.Best price is 5.50 against my rating of 4.50.
Pendolin worked hard outside the speed the whole way last time.In the circumstances it was a very good effort to stick on doggedly for fourth.She can lead or sit handy from gate 2 here.She is bred to be suited by the extra 300m today and is a mare progressing nicely-this is only here eighth start so she should have more to offer.10.0 on offer with Bet 365 and 9.50 at the TAB.I've got her at 6.0 here
Race 6
I thought the favourite here Happy Galaxy was chronic unders at 3.20 even though there is a chance he'll get a dolly lead.The ex NZ Warhorse now renamed Tougher Than Ever has a live hope on official figures-he's been backed so maybe he'll be fit enough to do himself justice here today.Skytrain was well ridden last time and he's a hope but he is a bit dodgy and you are brave if you back him.Albert The Fat is easily the best horse but he'll surely need the run and is being aimed at longer races.Centennial Park hasn't won since "Adam was a lad" but he goes very well fresh and loves fast ground.He doesn't really fit the profile of horses I like to back but I'm strong about my figures being accurate in this event and I have him at 5.50 and he is available at 7.0 so I'm on at 7.0 as I think the favourite will drift here.
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 2 Sumakaray 2.10 units to win at 2.50 or better (take the 2.90 now)
Warwick Farm Race 3 Laser Flash 1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 5.50 now)
Pendolin 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 9.50 + now)
Race 6 Centennial Park 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better (take the 7.0 now)
Caulfield
Race 2
Very keen on Sumakaray here.She was terrific winning over Christmas at Moonee Valley when wide throughout.Second there Avoid Lightning franked the form in Listed grade last week.She won't be wide today and can be right on pace from gate 2.She's back against her own age group here and although she is favourite she still is great value at 2.90.I have her a 2.35 chance here.
Warwick Farm
Race 3
Two relatively unexposed horses here against a field of horses who have generally peaked perfomance wise namely, Laser Flash and Pendolin.Laser Flash doesn't have much turn of foot and the stretch out to 2200mshould suit him providing he's fit enough second up.There has been some money for him so I'll take his fitness on trust here.He's a lightly raced 3-y-o off bottom weight here and surely there is better to come from him.Gets a nice run just behind the speed here from gate 4.Best price is 5.50 against my rating of 4.50.
Pendolin worked hard outside the speed the whole way last time.In the circumstances it was a very good effort to stick on doggedly for fourth.She can lead or sit handy from gate 2 here.She is bred to be suited by the extra 300m today and is a mare progressing nicely-this is only here eighth start so she should have more to offer.10.0 on offer with Bet 365 and 9.50 at the TAB.I've got her at 6.0 here
Race 6
I thought the favourite here Happy Galaxy was chronic unders at 3.20 even though there is a chance he'll get a dolly lead.The ex NZ Warhorse now renamed Tougher Than Ever has a live hope on official figures-he's been backed so maybe he'll be fit enough to do himself justice here today.Skytrain was well ridden last time and he's a hope but he is a bit dodgy and you are brave if you back him.Albert The Fat is easily the best horse but he'll surely need the run and is being aimed at longer races.Centennial Park hasn't won since "Adam was a lad" but he goes very well fresh and loves fast ground.He doesn't really fit the profile of horses I like to back but I'm strong about my figures being accurate in this event and I have him at 5.50 and he is available at 7.0 so I'm on at 7.0 as I think the favourite will drift here.
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 2 Sumakaray 2.10 units to win at 2.50 or better (take the 2.90 now)
Warwick Farm Race 3 Laser Flash 1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 5.50 now)
Pendolin 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 9.50 + now)
Race 6 Centennial Park 0.90 units to win at 6.0 or better (take the 7.0 now)
Thursday, 7 February 2013
Moonee Valley & Canterbury Tonight
Moonee Valley and Canterbury tonight.Warm/ hot weather at both locations so expect fast Summer ground
I found the Canterbury meeting very uninspiring and I have no suggestions there.
Moonee Valley is a little bit better but I've only found one race which interests me early doors.
Moonee Valley
Race 5
Shamal Wind created a big impression when quickening away from a decent field of fillies at the Flemington Carnival.She resumes here tonight over 955m.On official ratings she has upwards of 6 points in hand of this field.She is a very promising filly but I'd be surprised if she was fully wound up tonight and giving a bit of weight to older mares around Moonee Valley (both her wins have been at galloping tracks Ballarat and Flemington) there is a chance she may be vulnerable.The early quote of 1.30 is a lot different to my figures.Here's my 'tissue" for this race
Shamal Wind 1.77
Lady Antibellum 4.30
Zippa The Rippa 8.0
Chinzia 26.0
Arrogant Cat 41.0
Gold Dust 51.0
note:I missed out Chinzia initially and have updated once I realized my mistake-apologies!
Lady Antebellum is a good Moonee Valley performer.She's had a little freshen up and that has worked before with this mare.A.Forbes who claims 3kg's has won on her here earlier this season.She's not a difficult ride as she always gets back and finishes off hard.These 955m sprints here are usually frantic affairs with a new car the prize for the fastest time in the series so she should get a chance to round them up late.Shamal Wind could simply be a different grade to these but at 1.30 is very easy to oppose.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Lady Antebellum 1.20 units to win at 4.50 or better (have 50% at the 5.00 that is currently available and monitor Betfair for a bit better with the other 50%
I found the Canterbury meeting very uninspiring and I have no suggestions there.
Moonee Valley is a little bit better but I've only found one race which interests me early doors.
Moonee Valley
Race 5
Shamal Wind created a big impression when quickening away from a decent field of fillies at the Flemington Carnival.She resumes here tonight over 955m.On official ratings she has upwards of 6 points in hand of this field.She is a very promising filly but I'd be surprised if she was fully wound up tonight and giving a bit of weight to older mares around Moonee Valley (both her wins have been at galloping tracks Ballarat and Flemington) there is a chance she may be vulnerable.The early quote of 1.30 is a lot different to my figures.Here's my 'tissue" for this race
Shamal Wind 1.77
Lady Antibellum 4.30
Zippa The Rippa 8.0
Chinzia 26.0
Arrogant Cat 41.0
Gold Dust 51.0
note:I missed out Chinzia initially and have updated once I realized my mistake-apologies!
Lady Antebellum is a good Moonee Valley performer.She's had a little freshen up and that has worked before with this mare.A.Forbes who claims 3kg's has won on her here earlier this season.She's not a difficult ride as she always gets back and finishes off hard.These 955m sprints here are usually frantic affairs with a new car the prize for the fastest time in the series so she should get a chance to round them up late.Shamal Wind could simply be a different grade to these but at 1.30 is very easy to oppose.
Advised Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 Lady Antebellum 1.20 units to win at 4.50 or better (have 50% at the 5.00 that is currently available and monitor Betfair for a bit better with the other 50%
Tuesday, 5 February 2013
Sandown & Kembla Today
Sandown and a ATC meeting at Kembla to concentrate on today.
Sandown
Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3 with a hot day forecast and no showers currently around on the radar.
Race 3
Significant late jockey change here with C.Williams replacing N.Hall on favourite Vine.Very positive move!Only one set of prices here at the moment and Vine is listed at 2.50.If Vine can reproduce his run here two starts back he'll be very hard to beat.As is customary with horses ridden by Hall he was given far too much to do last time but did look a tad dour in the closing stages there.Gets out to 2100m here today and that should suit him nicely.I don't want to back him at 2.50 I think that's a bit skinny but I'll probably back him around the 3.00 mark if it is available on Betfair.I'm not listing this as an advised bet because I don't see a suitable price available at the moment.My figures have Vine at 2.75 here.
Race 4
Most of the cream here went with a few minutes of prices going up.It's a big problem on Wednesdays and it takes very little to rattle the markets.I managed to get some of the 11.0 Klishina and she's best priced 6.50 now.Red Fez touched 4.60 but she's best priced 4.20 now.It's these two against the field for me here.Both race off a mark of 62 here and in both cases that's too lenient.Red Fez won a Ballarat maiden in great style and the second there has franked the form winning subsequently.She looks sure to be involved here and 4.20 is ok against my rated price of 3.80.
Klishina trounced her rivals on debut and the placegetters there have both placed again in subsequent maidens.She was beaten by pilot error last time- apprentice O.Ay guilty of over confidence and delayed pressing the turbo button until too late.This filly has a great turn of foot and is most definitely Saturday grade.The analyst at Sportsbet/IAS who put up 11.0 this morning hasn't been doing his homework properly.I wish she'd drawn out a bit and see gate 1 here as a potential problem as she gets back and has a relatively inexperienced pilot (O.Ay again) but we do get 3kg's off to help a bit.When I took all that into account I still had her no higher that 4.50 here.
Race 5
They put up 4.20 about Chicarito here and it went in less than two minutes into 3.20 now.Subiaso has shortened also from 5.50 to 4.80.That makes it difficult to advise a bet here as I was looking at taking 3 against the field here- they being those two mentioned plus Grane.Value isn't there now but I think the winner is more likely to come from one of these three than not.
Race 6
A few hopes here.The two with the scope to do much better are Compass and Jamaican Warrior.Jamaican Warrior ran ok in a similar event last time and can certainly do better but has a tricky gate here-he's second pick but I prefer Compass.He has gate 1 here and hopefully he can hold the rail and box seat.He's raced on pace in Sydney but drifted back on his first run for Kane Harris (stable going gangbusters by the way) so lets hope he stays prominent today.Really wound up when he found his stride at Seymour and the horse he beat there Horatio has been going well.He's listed at 6.0 in early markets and I have him at 4.80.
Kembla
I'm dubious about the track rating here of Heavy 8 up from 9 last night.They haven't watered here so Heavy is a bit hard to fathom as it's pretty dry and a warm dry day is forecast.I reckon it'll be slow or dead as the day progresses.Anyway I don't like anything here today from the early listings so nothing at all I can help you with .
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 4 Red Fez 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better (take the 4.20 now)
Klishina 1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 6.50 still available)
Race 6 Compass 1.05 units to win at 5.0 or better (take the 6.0 available now)
Sandown
Dead 4 posted but expect an upgrade to Good 3 with a hot day forecast and no showers currently around on the radar.
Race 3
Significant late jockey change here with C.Williams replacing N.Hall on favourite Vine.Very positive move!Only one set of prices here at the moment and Vine is listed at 2.50.If Vine can reproduce his run here two starts back he'll be very hard to beat.As is customary with horses ridden by Hall he was given far too much to do last time but did look a tad dour in the closing stages there.Gets out to 2100m here today and that should suit him nicely.I don't want to back him at 2.50 I think that's a bit skinny but I'll probably back him around the 3.00 mark if it is available on Betfair.I'm not listing this as an advised bet because I don't see a suitable price available at the moment.My figures have Vine at 2.75 here.
Race 4
Most of the cream here went with a few minutes of prices going up.It's a big problem on Wednesdays and it takes very little to rattle the markets.I managed to get some of the 11.0 Klishina and she's best priced 6.50 now.Red Fez touched 4.60 but she's best priced 4.20 now.It's these two against the field for me here.Both race off a mark of 62 here and in both cases that's too lenient.Red Fez won a Ballarat maiden in great style and the second there has franked the form winning subsequently.She looks sure to be involved here and 4.20 is ok against my rated price of 3.80.
Klishina trounced her rivals on debut and the placegetters there have both placed again in subsequent maidens.She was beaten by pilot error last time- apprentice O.Ay guilty of over confidence and delayed pressing the turbo button until too late.This filly has a great turn of foot and is most definitely Saturday grade.The analyst at Sportsbet/IAS who put up 11.0 this morning hasn't been doing his homework properly.I wish she'd drawn out a bit and see gate 1 here as a potential problem as she gets back and has a relatively inexperienced pilot (O.Ay again) but we do get 3kg's off to help a bit.When I took all that into account I still had her no higher that 4.50 here.
Race 5
They put up 4.20 about Chicarito here and it went in less than two minutes into 3.20 now.Subiaso has shortened also from 5.50 to 4.80.That makes it difficult to advise a bet here as I was looking at taking 3 against the field here- they being those two mentioned plus Grane.Value isn't there now but I think the winner is more likely to come from one of these three than not.
Race 6
A few hopes here.The two with the scope to do much better are Compass and Jamaican Warrior.Jamaican Warrior ran ok in a similar event last time and can certainly do better but has a tricky gate here-he's second pick but I prefer Compass.He has gate 1 here and hopefully he can hold the rail and box seat.He's raced on pace in Sydney but drifted back on his first run for Kane Harris (stable going gangbusters by the way) so lets hope he stays prominent today.Really wound up when he found his stride at Seymour and the horse he beat there Horatio has been going well.He's listed at 6.0 in early markets and I have him at 4.80.
Kembla
I'm dubious about the track rating here of Heavy 8 up from 9 last night.They haven't watered here so Heavy is a bit hard to fathom as it's pretty dry and a warm dry day is forecast.I reckon it'll be slow or dead as the day progresses.Anyway I don't like anything here today from the early listings so nothing at all I can help you with .
Advised Bets
Sandown Race 4 Red Fez 1.30 units to win at 4.0 or better (take the 4.20 now)
Klishina 1.10 units to win at 4.80 or better (take the 6.50 still available)
Race 6 Compass 1.05 units to win at 5.0 or better (take the 6.0 available now)
Friday, 1 February 2013
Caulfield & Rosehill Today
All of you will have experienced weeks when everything seems to be going wrong all at the same time.I've had such a week.I need a couple of winners to cheer me up so here's hoping!
Caulfield is a good 3 with showers forecast.No sign of them on the radar and doubt they will amount to much if they do arrive later.Expect fast Summer ground.
Rosehill is a Heavy 10 after being deluged yesterday.Rain this morning is clearing now but it's going to be tough out there today.
Caulfield
Race 1
Spending is still 3.30 with Sportingbet after being as high as 4.0 yesterday.This looks a useful filly in the making.The barrier is a bit awkward but we have C.Williams aboard to deal with that.I think she'll be sent forward here to sit just behind the speed.1400m should bring about a lot of improvement.A mark of 68 is too lenient and I've got her a 2.60 chance here.
Race 6
Two serious hopes here in The New Boy and Infinite Energy and I'll be a tad surprised if the winner comes from elsewhere.Both ran well last time.The New Boy just failed to land the gamble after kicking clear and looking home.That was a sterling effort and he was stiff going down narrowly.Infinite Energy wasn't beaten far and got home well- the extra 200m won't hurt today.The New Boy can dictate here and I think of the two his was the better effort last time.My figures here are The New Boy 2.80, Infinite Energy 3.40.Early market have then both around 3.30 (The New Boy is 3.50 with TAB Sportsbet)
Rosehill
Race 4
Disciple is early favourite here at 2.40.That's very short for a horse 4 weeks between runs with 58kg's on his back.He's certainly an improved horse this prep but will need to carry that improvement on to score again here today.He's 2 points up in the ratings from the mark he was beaten off last time.The last time he and Fedde met Disciple gave him 0.5kg's and finished just behind him.That was on wet ground.Today he has to give Fedde 6kg's after Fedde's riders 3kg claim is taken into account.Fedde does get back and there is no guarantee of a strong tempo here but he's around 10.00 and thats simply too big.I have him a 6.50 chance.Burbero is improving and Zedlion was good again last week.
Race 7
She's Clean won nicely last time but that was a suss race in my opinion and this is far more testing.After the claim she still has to cart 58kg's through the mud, is 4 points higher in the ratings than last time and has opposition that looks a fair bit more robust than she beat a fortnight ago.2.70 is way too short.Matignon is second best around 3.40 and that's about right.The one that stands out value wise is Magnolia Lane who is best suited by wet conditions.She's been going pretty well on the dry tracks but it will be no surprise to see her find a couple of lengths in today's mud.6.00 is my rated price yet Luxbet have her at 11.0
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 1 Spending 1.90 units to win at 2.80 or better (take the 3.30 with Sportingbet)
Race 6 The New Boy 1.75 units to win at 3.0 or better (take the 3.50 with TAB)
Rosehill Race 4 Fedde 0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (shop on Betfair look for 11.0 +)
Race 7 Magnolia Lane 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 11.0 at Luxbet)
Caulfield is a good 3 with showers forecast.No sign of them on the radar and doubt they will amount to much if they do arrive later.Expect fast Summer ground.
Rosehill is a Heavy 10 after being deluged yesterday.Rain this morning is clearing now but it's going to be tough out there today.
Caulfield
Race 1
Spending is still 3.30 with Sportingbet after being as high as 4.0 yesterday.This looks a useful filly in the making.The barrier is a bit awkward but we have C.Williams aboard to deal with that.I think she'll be sent forward here to sit just behind the speed.1400m should bring about a lot of improvement.A mark of 68 is too lenient and I've got her a 2.60 chance here.
Race 6
Two serious hopes here in The New Boy and Infinite Energy and I'll be a tad surprised if the winner comes from elsewhere.Both ran well last time.The New Boy just failed to land the gamble after kicking clear and looking home.That was a sterling effort and he was stiff going down narrowly.Infinite Energy wasn't beaten far and got home well- the extra 200m won't hurt today.The New Boy can dictate here and I think of the two his was the better effort last time.My figures here are The New Boy 2.80, Infinite Energy 3.40.Early market have then both around 3.30 (The New Boy is 3.50 with TAB Sportsbet)
Rosehill
Race 4
Disciple is early favourite here at 2.40.That's very short for a horse 4 weeks between runs with 58kg's on his back.He's certainly an improved horse this prep but will need to carry that improvement on to score again here today.He's 2 points up in the ratings from the mark he was beaten off last time.The last time he and Fedde met Disciple gave him 0.5kg's and finished just behind him.That was on wet ground.Today he has to give Fedde 6kg's after Fedde's riders 3kg claim is taken into account.Fedde does get back and there is no guarantee of a strong tempo here but he's around 10.00 and thats simply too big.I have him a 6.50 chance.Burbero is improving and Zedlion was good again last week.
Race 7
She's Clean won nicely last time but that was a suss race in my opinion and this is far more testing.After the claim she still has to cart 58kg's through the mud, is 4 points higher in the ratings than last time and has opposition that looks a fair bit more robust than she beat a fortnight ago.2.70 is way too short.Matignon is second best around 3.40 and that's about right.The one that stands out value wise is Magnolia Lane who is best suited by wet conditions.She's been going pretty well on the dry tracks but it will be no surprise to see her find a couple of lengths in today's mud.6.00 is my rated price yet Luxbet have her at 11.0
Advised Bets
Caulfield Race 1 Spending 1.90 units to win at 2.80 or better (take the 3.30 with Sportingbet)
Race 6 The New Boy 1.75 units to win at 3.0 or better (take the 3.50 with TAB)
Rosehill Race 4 Fedde 0.75 units to win at 7.0 or better (shop on Betfair look for 11.0 +)
Race 7 Magnolia Lane 0.85 units to win at 6.50 or better (take the 11.0 at Luxbet)
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