Flemington posts a Good 4. It's a clear fresh morning with a high of 13 forecast and winds expected to pick up to around 30KPH during the afternoon. That wind will make leading that bit tougher in the circle races. Best ground is expected to be up the middle on the straight course and between 3 to 7 horse widths out up the straight in the circle races.
Race 2
Dulverton is going well but things are tougher today and the value here is Florida Pearl . His comeback run was very good and he was only run down late by a promising import in the Weir camp Andrea Mantegna who goes around here later today. 3 lengths behind was another Weir horse Kevin's Time who franked the form winning earlier this week.
Suggested Bet: Florida Pearl 1 unit at 5.50 or better. 10.0 with Ubet so have 50% of the stake there and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 6
Three main hopes here on my figures are Chequered Flag, Benall and Yogi. I think Yogi is too short I have him nearer 5.0 than the top offer of 3.0. Chequered Flag I have at 4.1 which you'll probably get but happy to play Benall at double figures I have him at 6.0
Suggested Bet: Benall 0.85 units at 6.50 or better. Take the 12.0 on offer with Crown or Sportsbet for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 10
I was very bullish about Poetic Ray last week in what was a almost identical race before the wind scuppered the meeting at Caulfield. No 17.0 bet early this week but still plenty of fat at 11.0 with Bet 365
Suggested Bet : 1.25 units Poetic Ray at 4.50 or better. Take the 11.0 with Bet 365 with the SPG
Quite a few others of interest today but I really want to see how markets develop before commiting.
I had planned a daily blog covering the Goodwood Festival in England but the weather played havoc there over the first 2 days with some very wild results. The form had settled down yesterday but rain is due again just as racing begins tonight so it's best just watched for me I think.
I'm stuck in a losing trough at the moment but hopefully the fight back will happen sooner rather than later.
Friday, 4 August 2017
Friday, 28 July 2017
Caulfield Saturday
Mild morning in Caulfield with a predicted high of 16 degrees and very breezy. Good 4 is posted but the wind may get it up to a Good 3 at some stage. The wind is blowing from the north so it'll be a factor today and front runners exposed to it are likely to be disadvantaged to a degree. It's hard to be dogmatic as the wind direction can change as can the strength. Currently 35 KMP but monitor what's going on as the afternoon progresses.
Race 1
I have Sullivan Bay on top here but she's on the drift this morning. As the likely leader she'll have the wind bias to deal with. She's also had a long prep and she was a bit flat at the business end last time. Forgeress, Every Faith and Divine Chills next in that order. Probably a race to sit out.
Race 2
I have Kiwia marked at 2.0 and Charlevoix at 3.90 with these 2 the only ones under double figures. Jocks will be desperate for cover here so they may end up walking along in the early sectionals. Not playing at this stage.
Race 3
Pass
Race 4
Tight handicap but happy to go with Kabrocco from a handy gate where he should get cover but not be too far off the front. It wasn't a pleasant watch if you took the shorts on him last time on the synthetic but I'm happy to put a line through that. I have him at 6.50 so happy to play with 9.50 the best current quote. Written Era (marked 8.3 and Tango Rock (marked 8.70) are next best on my figures
Suggested Bet: 0.70 units Kabrocco AT 7.0 or better. Have 50% of the stake with UBET at 9.50 and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 5
I have 3 marked under 10.00 here Poetic Ray at 4.0, Spanish Reef at 4.40 and Meat Traders at 7.20. I can only see upside for Poetic Ray who has plenty of scope to improve over the longer trip here. There is no reason that fast ground should present a problem and he's huge overs. He was 16.0 last night but money is coming now.
Suggested Bet: Poetic Ray 1.25 units at 4.50 or better . Take the 12.0 with Bet 365 with the SPG for 100% of the stake
Race 6
This is tricky. Surely Orachael is too short here around 3.30. she is one of many with a hope here but I have her much bigger. Not a race I like.
Race 7
We had no luck with Revolving Door last time. I have him marked at 2.50 and you should easily get that if the wind is counting against horses racing up front. I need a fair bit better to go in again though so no early bet advised. Nikitas and Wayanka next best
Race 8
If this were 1000m I might be tempted to give Lankan Rupee a go but I suspect the 1200m will find him out first up and I expect him to be easy to back. It's very tight this race. Supido, Keen Array, Savanna Amour, Choclate Holic and Ability all live hopes. I think Savanna Amour is probably the value go but at this stage I'm not involved so no bet advised.
Race 9
I have them marked Galaxy Raider 5.4, Portion Control 5.9, Cosmic Lights 6.7, Reneged 9.5, Black Sheep 10.3, Electric Fusion 12.1 and 18.0 bar these. Probably not playing here.
Good Luck
Race 1
I have Sullivan Bay on top here but she's on the drift this morning. As the likely leader she'll have the wind bias to deal with. She's also had a long prep and she was a bit flat at the business end last time. Forgeress, Every Faith and Divine Chills next in that order. Probably a race to sit out.
Race 2
I have Kiwia marked at 2.0 and Charlevoix at 3.90 with these 2 the only ones under double figures. Jocks will be desperate for cover here so they may end up walking along in the early sectionals. Not playing at this stage.
Race 3
Pass
Race 4
Tight handicap but happy to go with Kabrocco from a handy gate where he should get cover but not be too far off the front. It wasn't a pleasant watch if you took the shorts on him last time on the synthetic but I'm happy to put a line through that. I have him at 6.50 so happy to play with 9.50 the best current quote. Written Era (marked 8.3 and Tango Rock (marked 8.70) are next best on my figures
Suggested Bet: 0.70 units Kabrocco AT 7.0 or better. Have 50% of the stake with UBET at 9.50 and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 5
I have 3 marked under 10.00 here Poetic Ray at 4.0, Spanish Reef at 4.40 and Meat Traders at 7.20. I can only see upside for Poetic Ray who has plenty of scope to improve over the longer trip here. There is no reason that fast ground should present a problem and he's huge overs. He was 16.0 last night but money is coming now.
Suggested Bet: Poetic Ray 1.25 units at 4.50 or better . Take the 12.0 with Bet 365 with the SPG for 100% of the stake
Race 6
This is tricky. Surely Orachael is too short here around 3.30. she is one of many with a hope here but I have her much bigger. Not a race I like.
Race 7
We had no luck with Revolving Door last time. I have him marked at 2.50 and you should easily get that if the wind is counting against horses racing up front. I need a fair bit better to go in again though so no early bet advised. Nikitas and Wayanka next best
Race 8
If this were 1000m I might be tempted to give Lankan Rupee a go but I suspect the 1200m will find him out first up and I expect him to be easy to back. It's very tight this race. Supido, Keen Array, Savanna Amour, Choclate Holic and Ability all live hopes. I think Savanna Amour is probably the value go but at this stage I'm not involved so no bet advised.
Race 9
I have them marked Galaxy Raider 5.4, Portion Control 5.9, Cosmic Lights 6.7, Reneged 9.5, Black Sheep 10.3, Electric Fusion 12.1 and 18.0 bar these. Probably not playing here.
Good Luck
Tuesday, 25 July 2017
Sandown Hillside Wednesday
Slow 6 posted for the Hillside track and currently raining. Most of the rain missed this morning and it's only a modest amount falling now so probably Slow 6 will be the worst it gets.
No Betfair today so it'll be a quiet afternoon for me. 24 hours notice for a service outage is most unsatisfactory and Betfair need to look after their customers better. Had I known Monday I would have had a few days away midweek.
No definite bets today and overall it's a tricky day.
Good racing returns to the UK on the weekend and the Goodwood Festival runs Tuesday to Saturday next week so some light on the horizon after a pretty miserable month.
Good luck if your playing today
No Betfair today so it'll be a quiet afternoon for me. 24 hours notice for a service outage is most unsatisfactory and Betfair need to look after their customers better. Had I known Monday I would have had a few days away midweek.
No definite bets today and overall it's a tricky day.
Good racing returns to the UK on the weekend and the Goodwood Festival runs Tuesday to Saturday next week so some light on the horizon after a pretty miserable month.
Good luck if your playing today
Friday, 21 July 2017
Flemington Saturday
Dry day in Melbourne with a high of 12 degrees forecast. Flemington starts off a Good 4 but it's a breezy morning so it may upgrade at some point.
Race 1
Edediyin ran in some good races in Ireland and started as short as 5.0 in last years Irish Derby. He gave weight and a beating to Kellstorm in Ireland last year and Kellstorm now his stablemate is rated 72 so starting out here off a mark of 74 he is a well handicapped horse. He was hard to rate first up over 1600m as he's obviously been bought as a stayer although he did win his maiden over 1700m as a two year old. If the market remains strong for him he'd have to be a strong chance. Dollar For Dollar makes some appeal but the price has moved from 4.60 yesterday to a best price of 3.80 now. I have him marked at 3.70 so there's no real fat in the price now. I expect him to have enough speed to cross from gate 8 and sit 2/3rd in the run. If he fails to get over or gets back then things will be much tougher for him. Gervais and Lamborghini are next best.
Race 2
Diapason should be unbeaten as in all of the three races she's not won she's been an unlucky loser. This is a tad harder than the race she ran second in last time at Sandown. Newitt is replaced by Ben Thompson which is surely a positive but the negative is the drop back to 1600m as this mare will only get better as her stamina is drawn out. I expect this will be her last run in a very good first prep.
I'd like a chance to retrieve my losses on her but this is a very tricky race and at 3.90 she is too short. The only one I can discount in this race is Forty Nine riddles. None of the others would surprise. Very trappy contest.
Race 4
Portman on top marked 3.80 but he's top priced at 2.80 this morning so I need to look elsewhere for a bet. I don't like horses jumping grades and generally avoid them but occasional I will make an exception and I'm backing Rebellious Lord here. His maiden win was very good and he really quickened up when asked. His comeback run was a good though not as impressive as in the maiden but it was on very testing ground. Back on the dry today suits much better.
Suggested Bet: 0.65 units at 8.50 or better. Have half the stake at 10 with Bet 365 with SPG and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Race 5
Both Ruby Sea and First Approach map badly and are drifting in betting to around the mark I have them 4.1 and 7.1 respectively. I want a bit more fat than that to play though as there is very little pressure upfront here and Lovani will be getting all the favours. St Franco is a promising horse as is last Sunday's maiden winner Ratoute Yutty and neither of these would surprise.
Race 6
Tricky -1200m down the straight and probably go steady early. Not betting but I have them marked
4.8 Divine Mr Artie, 5.2 Ruettiger, 6.1 Rough Justice, 6.3 Moss And Dale, 6.6 Ozi Choice and 25.0 bar these.
Race 7
Kilimanjaro is rated 90 and if he's to be a live Cups contender he'll need to win a couple of races to get his rating up to get in. He can get one of those wins today. He need not get as far out of his ground as he did when resuming and he should be too classy for these. Pacodali is respected but I'm very keen here.
Suggested Bet: 2.25 units at 2.40 or better-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 SPG for 65% of the stake and the rest at Top Fluc if you can get it otherwise monitor on Betfair
Race 8
Thought Invictum Domina mapped well enough here to be a bet. I have her marked at 5.50 Whyouask, Swampland, Moonlightes Choice (very short!), Princess Of Queens and Special Diva next best in that order.23.0 bar these
Suggested Bet: 0.90 units Invictum Domina at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 with Bet 365 SPG for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 9
I'm not committed here but thought Knowable was clearly the one to beat if fit and ready to go first up. I'd need to see some strong market support first before getting involved
Race 1
Edediyin ran in some good races in Ireland and started as short as 5.0 in last years Irish Derby. He gave weight and a beating to Kellstorm in Ireland last year and Kellstorm now his stablemate is rated 72 so starting out here off a mark of 74 he is a well handicapped horse. He was hard to rate first up over 1600m as he's obviously been bought as a stayer although he did win his maiden over 1700m as a two year old. If the market remains strong for him he'd have to be a strong chance. Dollar For Dollar makes some appeal but the price has moved from 4.60 yesterday to a best price of 3.80 now. I have him marked at 3.70 so there's no real fat in the price now. I expect him to have enough speed to cross from gate 8 and sit 2/3rd in the run. If he fails to get over or gets back then things will be much tougher for him. Gervais and Lamborghini are next best.
Race 2
Diapason should be unbeaten as in all of the three races she's not won she's been an unlucky loser. This is a tad harder than the race she ran second in last time at Sandown. Newitt is replaced by Ben Thompson which is surely a positive but the negative is the drop back to 1600m as this mare will only get better as her stamina is drawn out. I expect this will be her last run in a very good first prep.
I'd like a chance to retrieve my losses on her but this is a very tricky race and at 3.90 she is too short. The only one I can discount in this race is Forty Nine riddles. None of the others would surprise. Very trappy contest.
Race 4
Portman on top marked 3.80 but he's top priced at 2.80 this morning so I need to look elsewhere for a bet. I don't like horses jumping grades and generally avoid them but occasional I will make an exception and I'm backing Rebellious Lord here. His maiden win was very good and he really quickened up when asked. His comeback run was a good though not as impressive as in the maiden but it was on very testing ground. Back on the dry today suits much better.
Suggested Bet: 0.65 units at 8.50 or better. Have half the stake at 10 with Bet 365 with SPG and monitor on Betfair with the balance.
Race 5
Both Ruby Sea and First Approach map badly and are drifting in betting to around the mark I have them 4.1 and 7.1 respectively. I want a bit more fat than that to play though as there is very little pressure upfront here and Lovani will be getting all the favours. St Franco is a promising horse as is last Sunday's maiden winner Ratoute Yutty and neither of these would surprise.
Race 6
Tricky -1200m down the straight and probably go steady early. Not betting but I have them marked
4.8 Divine Mr Artie, 5.2 Ruettiger, 6.1 Rough Justice, 6.3 Moss And Dale, 6.6 Ozi Choice and 25.0 bar these.
Race 7
Kilimanjaro is rated 90 and if he's to be a live Cups contender he'll need to win a couple of races to get his rating up to get in. He can get one of those wins today. He need not get as far out of his ground as he did when resuming and he should be too classy for these. Pacodali is respected but I'm very keen here.
Suggested Bet: 2.25 units at 2.40 or better-take the 3.20 with Bet 365 SPG for 65% of the stake and the rest at Top Fluc if you can get it otherwise monitor on Betfair
Race 8
Thought Invictum Domina mapped well enough here to be a bet. I have her marked at 5.50 Whyouask, Swampland, Moonlightes Choice (very short!), Princess Of Queens and Special Diva next best in that order.23.0 bar these
Suggested Bet: 0.90 units Invictum Domina at 6.0 or better-take the 7.0 with Bet 365 SPG for 50% of the stake and monitor on Betfair with the balance
Race 9
I'm not committed here but thought Knowable was clearly the one to beat if fit and ready to go first up. I'd need to see some strong market support first before getting involved
Tuesday, 18 July 2017
Sandown Hillside Today
It was an inglorious return for this blog last week and I was left feeling quite flat after Saturday's racing. I'd had a very good week previously but last week was a shocker.
Sandown was Soft 5 at 8am and there has been intermittent rain this morning with a bit more coming looking at the radar so I'd expect a downgrade. The rail is out 12m also. A tricky meeting initially it is made very difficult now with uncertainty around how the track will play.
Winter racing in Victoria is a real grind for the punter. Personally I like to see it all moved to the all weather after Warnambool until the start of the new season in August.The only turf meetings being for the jumpers and the awful highweight races. Trainers, Jockeys and Punters who have had a good trot could then do the sensible thing and jet off to Europe or the Americas without missing much. If you can't get away for whatever reason at least you'd have some consistency surface wise so you wouldn't be left up the air wondering like we are today.
No bets advised today. Back Saturday for Flemington and a couple of dry days forecast for Friday and Saturday so hopefully there will be some bets.
Sandown was Soft 5 at 8am and there has been intermittent rain this morning with a bit more coming looking at the radar so I'd expect a downgrade. The rail is out 12m also. A tricky meeting initially it is made very difficult now with uncertainty around how the track will play.
Winter racing in Victoria is a real grind for the punter. Personally I like to see it all moved to the all weather after Warnambool until the start of the new season in August.The only turf meetings being for the jumpers and the awful highweight races. Trainers, Jockeys and Punters who have had a good trot could then do the sensible thing and jet off to Europe or the Americas without missing much. If you can't get away for whatever reason at least you'd have some consistency surface wise so you wouldn't be left up the air wondering like we are today.
No bets advised today. Back Saturday for Flemington and a couple of dry days forecast for Friday and Saturday so hopefully there will be some bets.
Saturday, 15 July 2017
July Cup At Newmarket
Newmarket is good to firm for the final day of the July meeting. There is excellent action also at Ascot, York and Chester. This corresponding Saturday has proved very costly to me over many years with far more negative days than positive. The July Cup only switched to being a Saturday fixture a decade or so ago before then the July meeting ran Tuesday to Thursday. I'll keep things simple today and concentrate on the Cup which is a race that I've traditionally done well in.
There is a potential equine superstar here in Caravaggio who overcame difficulties when winning at Royal Ascot and looked tremendous in doing so. I doubt that Harry Angel who finished second there can turn the table here. Limato is a terrific horse on his day and waltzed home in this last year. The Tin Man already has two G1 sprints under his belt and Tasleet was only a neck behind him at Ascot and is showing much improved form this year. It's a very strong field but nevertheless I have Caravaggio odds on at 1.80 and cannot get him any longer.
Suggested Bet: Caravaggio 2.75 units at 1.90 or better. Take the current 2.16 on Betfair for half the stake and average in with the balance. I expect this one to be very solid in betting late.
There is a potential equine superstar here in Caravaggio who overcame difficulties when winning at Royal Ascot and looked tremendous in doing so. I doubt that Harry Angel who finished second there can turn the table here. Limato is a terrific horse on his day and waltzed home in this last year. The Tin Man already has two G1 sprints under his belt and Tasleet was only a neck behind him at Ascot and is showing much improved form this year. It's a very strong field but nevertheless I have Caravaggio odds on at 1.80 and cannot get him any longer.
Suggested Bet: Caravaggio 2.75 units at 1.90 or better. Take the current 2.16 on Betfair for half the stake and average in with the balance. I expect this one to be very solid in betting late.
Friday, 14 July 2017
Caulfield Today
Good 4 and a bright cool morning at Caulfield. Dry day forecast with wind not a factor.
Race 1
Data Point has obvious claims but is no value at all so I'm opposing. The big overs here is Emoji who gets a big weight swing with Orient Line who beat him last time. Emoji had a horrow passage that day at 21.0 with Bet365 is way over my figures.
Suggested Bet: Emoji 0.75units at 8.0 or better. take the 21.0 with Bet 365
Race 6
Stockdale takes a handy 3kg's of the back of Revolving Door and hopefully he can get over to track likely leader Toorak Cowboy without burning to much juice. He traveled like the best horse at the weights last time and was only nutted late. I have him a 3.50 shot here so 4.40 looks appealing.
Suggested Bet: Revolving Door 1.45 units at 3.70 or better. Have half the stake at 4.40 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee and average out the balance on Betfair.
Race 7
Supido is into the red now and I'm not really tempted to play at 1.75. The only other runner I have in single figures here is Lord Of The Sky who is returning from a tendon injury. If Supido gets back to around evens then I'll probably play but no bet advised as it stands.
Race 8
Sullivan Bay should cross and lead here and will be hard to pass. Divine Chills is the other main hope and I'm sure she'll go well but she seems best on a slow surface. If were a slow 5 I would have them closer and a slow 6 she would be marginally on top.
Suggested Bet: Sullivan Bay 1.65 units @ 3.20 or better. Take the 4.20 with Bet 365 with SP guarantee for half the stake and average the rest on Betfair. Divine Chills 0.75 units shop for best odds on Betfair.
Race 9
Schism is in great form and is a live hope but far too short on my figures. Airalign gets a good run up front or just behind the speed here and makes plenty of appeal.
Suggested Bet: Airalign 0.90 units @ 6.0 or better. Take the 10.0 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee for half the stake and average out the rest on Betfair.
Full program tonight in the UK including the G1 July Cup and the mighty Carravagio takes on the older horses for the first time. Hopefully I'll get time to preview a few races around 7pm
Race 1
Data Point has obvious claims but is no value at all so I'm opposing. The big overs here is Emoji who gets a big weight swing with Orient Line who beat him last time. Emoji had a horrow passage that day at 21.0 with Bet365 is way over my figures.
Suggested Bet: Emoji 0.75units at 8.0 or better. take the 21.0 with Bet 365
Race 6
Stockdale takes a handy 3kg's of the back of Revolving Door and hopefully he can get over to track likely leader Toorak Cowboy without burning to much juice. He traveled like the best horse at the weights last time and was only nutted late. I have him a 3.50 shot here so 4.40 looks appealing.
Suggested Bet: Revolving Door 1.45 units at 3.70 or better. Have half the stake at 4.40 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee and average out the balance on Betfair.
Race 7
Supido is into the red now and I'm not really tempted to play at 1.75. The only other runner I have in single figures here is Lord Of The Sky who is returning from a tendon injury. If Supido gets back to around evens then I'll probably play but no bet advised as it stands.
Race 8
Sullivan Bay should cross and lead here and will be hard to pass. Divine Chills is the other main hope and I'm sure she'll go well but she seems best on a slow surface. If were a slow 5 I would have them closer and a slow 6 she would be marginally on top.
Suggested Bet: Sullivan Bay 1.65 units @ 3.20 or better. Take the 4.20 with Bet 365 with SP guarantee for half the stake and average the rest on Betfair. Divine Chills 0.75 units shop for best odds on Betfair.
Race 9
Schism is in great form and is a live hope but far too short on my figures. Airalign gets a good run up front or just behind the speed here and makes plenty of appeal.
Suggested Bet: Airalign 0.90 units @ 6.0 or better. Take the 10.0 with Bet 365 with the SP guarantee for half the stake and average out the rest on Betfair.
Full program tonight in the UK including the G1 July Cup and the mighty Carravagio takes on the older horses for the first time. Hopefully I'll get time to preview a few races around 7pm
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